Commanders vs Colts Prediction & Betting Tips for NFL Week 4 on 10/4/2026

The Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders prepare for an early morning showdown in London at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. This Week 4 game in the 2026 NFL Regular Season offers both teams a chance to improve their 1-2 records. Fans can catch the action on the NFL Network as the game kicks off at 9:30 AM.

Led by head coach Shane Steichen, the Colts aim to secure their first road win of the season. Despite a recent victory over the Houston Texans, Indianapolis must address inconsistencies that have plagued their away games. Currently, they hold a 0-1 road record, highlighting the challenge they face playing outside Lucas Oil Stadium.

On the other side, the Commanders, coached by Dan Quinn, return home after a thrilling win against the Seattle Seahawks. The Commanders have struggled on the road but remain undefeated at Northwest Stadium. Playing in London provides a neutral environment, which may test the depth and adaptability of both squads.

Commanders vs Colts At a Glance (Week 4)

• The Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders both hold a 1-2 record heading into Week 4.
• This game will be played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, UK on October 4, 2026.
• The game will air on NFL Network at 9:30 AM.
• The Colts are favored with a moneyline of -196, while the Commanders are at +162.
• The over/under for the game is set at 47.5 points.
• The Colts have a road record of 0-1, while the Commanders are undefeated at home at 1-0.

Washington Commanders Gear Up for a Crucial Home Game

Offensive Overview

The Washington Commanders have showcased a balanced offensive attack so far this season. They rank 10th in the league for both total score and scoring per game, averaging 25 points. Their ground game has been particularly effective, ranking 8th with 132 rushing yards per game.

Despite their strong rushing game, the Commanders' passing attack has struggled. They are ranked 25th in the league, with an average of 182 passing yards per game. This might be an area they will look to improve upon in their upcoming game.

Defensive Challenges

On the defensive side, the Commanders have faced some challenges. They rank 30th in opponent passing yards allowed, giving up an average of 280.3 yards per game through the air. However, their run defense has been a bright spot, ranking 3rd with only 82 rushing yards allowed per game.

Washington's defense has managed to create turnovers, with 2 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery so far. Their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks is reflected in their 9th-place ranking for sacks, having recorded 5 this season.

Key Players to Watch

Marcus Mariota has been a key figure for the Commanders, recording 294 passing yards and 4 touchdowns without an interception in two games. He will be crucial in leading the offense against the Colts. Rachaad White and Jacory Croskey-Merritt have been effective in the running game, combining for over 240 rushing yards this season.

Defensively, Sonny Styles and Kain Medrano have been instrumental. Both players have recorded interceptions this season and will look to disrupt the Colts' passing game. Their performances could play a pivotal role in Washington's success this weekend.

Injury Concerns

The Commanders are dealing with several injuries that could impact their lineup. Key players such as Laremy Tunsil, Deatrich Wise Jr., and Leo Chenal are on injured reserve. Jayden Daniels is doubtful with a left elbow injury, potentially affecting the quarterback depth.

Chig Okonkwo is questionable with a hamstring issue, which could impact the tight end position. The team will need to adjust their game plan accordingly and rely on depth players to fill in the gaps.

Betting Trends

• The Commanders are 7-0 in their last 7 regular-season games for the Over/Under bets.
• As underdogs, they have gone 7-0 in Over/Under for the last 7 games.
• Washington is 6-0 in home games for Over/Under in their last 6 regular-season games.
• They are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 5 regular-season games.
• Following a loss, they have a 5-0 Over/Under record in their last 5 games.

Indianapolis Colts Gear Up for Game Against the Commanders

Offensive Overview

The Indianapolis Colts' offense ranks 11th in the league, averaging 24 points per game this season. Despite their scoring efficiency, the team has struggled with yardage, placing 25th with 293.3 yards per game. Their passing game ranks 23rd, and they find more success on the ground, ranking 15th in rushing yards per game.

Quarterback Daniel Jones leads the charge with 611 passing yards and three touchdowns over three games. His connection with key receivers like Josh Downs and Keenan Allen has been instrumental, with Downs leading the team in receiving yards. Running back Jonathan Taylor is also a significant contributor, ranking 6th in the league with 258 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Defensive Challenges

The Colts' defense ranks at the bottom of the league, allowing an average of 30.3 points per game. They have given up the most total yards in the league, averaging 417.3 yards allowed per game. The secondary has struggled, ranking 29th in passing yards allowed per game.

Despite these challenges, the Colts' defensive line has been effective in generating pressure, ranking 7th in sacks. DeForest Buckner and Adetomiwa Adebawore have been standouts, combining for several sacks this season. The team also ranks well in turnovers, with their defense forcing fumbles and maintaining a high takeaway rate.

Injury Concerns

Indianapolis faces several injury challenges that could impact their game against the Commanders. Wide receiver Ashton Dulin is questionable with an ankle injury, while Alec Pierce is out with a heel injury. The absence of tight end Will Mallory and defensive end Micheal Clemons on injured reserve also limits their options.

These injuries put more pressure on players like Josh Downs and Tyler Warren to step up in the receiving game. Defensively, the Colts will rely heavily on DeForest Buckner and their depth to fill the gaps left by injured players.

Team Betting Trends

• The Colts have covered the spread in their last three regular-season away games.
• They have a strong record against the spread as underdogs, going 6-3 in their last nine games.
• Overall, the Colts have covered the spread in three of their last four games.
• The total has gone over in three of their last four games as underdogs.
• Indianapolis has also seen the total go over in three of their last four away games.

Commanders vs Colts Prediction: Commanders +3.5

The Washington Commanders are underdogs at home with a spread of +3.5 against the Indianapolis Colts. Given that the Commanders have a strong track record against the spread in recent games, specifically as underdogs with an 80% success rate, they are a solid choice to cover in this game.

Despite their 1-2 record, the Commanders have demonstrated resilience, especially on their home field, where they hold a 1-0 record this season. Meanwhile, the Colts' defense ranks last in opponent offensive yards, allowing an average of 417.3 yards per game, which should provide Washington ample opportunities to score.

The Colts have struggled on the road this season, sitting at 0-1 away from Lucas Oil Stadium. Their defense has been vulnerable, ranking 24th in opponent scoring, which could be exploited by Washington's balanced offensive attack that ranks 10th in scoring.

Taking all factors into consideration, the Commanders are poised to not only cover the spread but potentially win outright in what could be a competitive game in London. A projected final score of Commanders 28, Colts 24 supports this pick.

• Commanders vs Colts Prediction: Commanders +3.5
• Commanders vs Colts Score: Commanders 28 - Colts 24

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