Colts vs Dolphins Prediction & Betting Tips for NFL Week 10 on 11/15/2026

As we enter Week 10 of the 2026 NFL regular season, the Miami Dolphins are set to visit the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. The game is scheduled for Sunday, November 15, 2026, at 1:00 PM and will be broadcast on CBS (Paramount+). Despite the cold weather forecast, the retractable roof of the stadium ensures that external conditions won't affect play.

The Miami Dolphins, led by head coach Jeff Hafley, have faced a challenging season so far with a record of 1-7. With only one win on the road, the Dolphins are looking to turn their fortunes around. Their recent game saw them fall to the Detroit Lions 19-9 at home.

Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts, under the guidance of head coach Shane Steichen, have had their own struggles with a record of 2-7. The Colts narrowly lost to the Dallas Cowboys 27-23 in their last outing. As they return home, they'll aim to capitalize on their slight advantage playing at Lucas Oil Stadium.

As for the odds, the Colts are favored with a moneyline of -197 against the Dolphins' +164. The spread is set at 3.5 points, and the over/under stands at 37.5. Both teams are desperate for a win, which could set the stage for a competitive game.

Colts vs Dolphins At a Glance (Week 10)

• The Miami Dolphins hold a 1-7 record entering Week 10 of the 2026 NFL regular season.
• The Indianapolis Colts have a 2-7 record as they prepare for their Week 10 game.
• Lucas Oil Stadium, with its retractable roof, will host the game in Indianapolis, IN.
• The weather forecast predicts a very cold and clear day, though wind will likely not impact the game due to the stadium's roof.
• Consensus odds favor the Colts with a moneyline of -197, while the Dolphins are at +164.
• The point spread sets the Colts as 3.5-point favorites with an over/under of 37.5 points.

The Colts' Challenges: Indianapolis Colts Home Game Preview

Offensive Struggles

The Indianapolis Colts' offense has struggled this season, ranking 26th in total offensive yards with an average of 288.9 yards per game. Their passing game has been particularly weak, placing 27th with just 173.7 passing yards per game. Despite these challenges, their rushing game ranks 14th, providing some hope for offensive balance.

Defensive Concerns

On defense, the Colts have allowed an average of 27.7 points per game, ranking them 26th in opponent scoring. They have faced difficulties stopping the run, ranking 30th in opponent rushing yards per game with 137 yards allowed. However, their pass defense has shown resilience, allowing 224.8 passing yards per game, which is 17th in the league.

Key Players to Watch

Jonathan Taylor continues to be a standout player, rushing for 656 yards and scoring 8 touchdowns this season. Daniel Jones, the starting quarterback, has accumulated 1,722 passing yards with 6 touchdowns, but his 10 interceptions have been costly. On special teams, kicker Spencer Shrader has been reliable, making 22 field goals this season.

Injury Report

The Colts are dealing with significant injuries, including defensive end Arden Key and wide receiver D.J. Montgomery, both on injured reserve. Alec Pierce is also out with a heel injury, while several players, including Akeem Davis-Gaither, are questionable for Week 10 due to various injuries. These absences may impact their depth and performance.

Recent Performances

In their most recent game, the Colts narrowly lost to the Dallas Cowboys at home, 27-23. They struggled defensively, allowing 329 passing yards, although they managed 166 passing yards of their own. Previously, they faced a tough loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars, 42-7, indicating inconsistency in their performance.

Upcoming Matchup

The Colts will face the Miami Dolphins at home, entering the game as -3.5-point favorites. With a total set at 38.5, this game presents an opportunity for the Colts to bounce back. The Colts will need to capitalize on their home-field advantage to secure a much-needed win.

Betting Trends

• The Colts are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 away games.
• The over has hit in 4 of their last 6 away games.
• The over is 5-3 in their last 8 games as underdogs.
• The over has hit in 8 of their last 14 games overall.
• The Colts are 2-1 against the spread when the total is 42 or less.
• The team is 1-2 straight up and against the spread in their last 3 home games.

Miami Dolphins: A Deep Dive into the Team's 2026 Season Performance

Offensive Struggles

The Miami Dolphins' offense has faced significant challenges this season, ranking 30th in both passing yards and points per game. They average only 15.8 points per game, placing them near the bottom of the league. Despite these struggles, their rushing attack shows some promise, ranking 12th with an average of 117.5 yards per game.

Key offensive players have had mixed performances, with Malik Willis, the quarterback, completing 1396 passing yards and six touchdowns in eight games. Ollie Gordon II has been a standout in the backfield, rushing for 463 yards and four touchdowns, showcasing his ability to find the end zone.

Defensive Highlights

Defensively, the Dolphins have shown better consistency, ranking 8th in opponent offensive yards allowed. Their pass defense is particularly strong, allowing only 214.4 passing yards per game, which ranks 12th in the league. The defense has also accumulated 12 sacks, placing them 15th in the league.

Players like Josh Uche and Chop Robinson have been critical in maintaining a solid pass rush. Uche has recorded several sacks this season, contributing to the team's overall defensive effort.

Recent Game Performances

The Dolphins are currently 1-7, with their sole victory against the New York Jets in Week 7, winning 28-25. This game showcased the potential of their offense and defense, with Malik Willis throwing for 208 yards and two touchdowns. Their recent losses, however, highlight inconsistencies in both offensive production and defensive stability.

In their latest game against the Detroit Lions, the Dolphins fell 19-9, struggling offensively with only 151 passing yards and 77 rushing yards. The defense allowed 168 passing yards, which is a bit higher than their season average.

Injury Concerns

Injuries have plagued the Dolphins, with key players like Malik Willis (groin) and De'Von Achane (knee) on injured reserve. These absences have certainly impacted the team's performance on both sides of the ball.

Jaylen Wright is listed as questionable with a quad injury, which could further affect the running game if he is unable to play.

Betting Trends

• The Dolphins have covered the spread in 66.7% of their away games this season.
• They have a 75% success rate on over/under bets as underdogs this season.
• They have gone over the total points in 75% of their last four games.
• The Dolphins are 2-1 against the spread in games with totals of 42 or less this season.

Colts vs Dolphins Prediction: Colts -3.5

The Indianapolis Colts are set as 3.5-point favorites against the Miami Dolphins in this Week 10 matchup. Despite their 2-7 record, the Colts' home-field advantage and the Dolphins' struggles on the road (1-3) make the Colts a more promising pick. The Colts have shown the ability to cover spreads at home, and they have historically performed well against the Dolphins at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Dolphins have struggled offensively, averaging only 15.8 points per game, which ranks them 30th in the league. Their defense has been relatively better, but with the Colts' average of 20.4 points per game, Indianapolis should be able to exploit Miami's vulnerabilities. With the Colts' ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, they could capitalize on Miami's offensive woes.

Moreover, the Colts have a recent track record of covering spreads against the Dolphins, including a notable 33-8 victory in their last head-to-head at home. The Dolphins' current losing streak of two games indicates ongoing issues that the Colts can take advantage of. Given the Colts' past success against Miami, the -3.5 spread feels attainable.

Considering the statistical matchup and historical performance, the Colts are likely to secure a win and cover the spread. My projected final score for this game supports this prediction, with the Colts winning comfortably.

• Colts vs Dolphins Prediction: Colts -3.5
• Colts vs Dolphins Score: Colts 24 - Dolphins 17

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