Utah State vs Troy Prediction & Betting Tips for Week 4 on 9/26/2026

In Week 4 of the 2026 regular season, the Troy Trojans will travel to face the Utah State Aggies at Merlin Olsen Field At Maverik Stadium in Logan, UT. The game is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, at 7:30 PM and will be broadcast on CBSS. Both teams are eager to make a mark in their respective conferences, the Sun Belt for Troy and the Pac-12 for Utah State.

The Trojans, who hold a 2-1 record this season, aim to secure their first road victory after falling short against Missouri in their previous away game. Despite the loss, Troy demonstrated strong offensive capabilities, notably through the air, racking up 230 passing yards. They are yet to engage in conference play, making this non-conference game an important test.

On the other hand, the Aggies are still seeking their first win of the season with a 0-3 record. They are coming off a tough loss to Utah where they struggled offensively, particularly on the ground with only 58 rushing yards. Playing at home, Utah State will look to turn their fortunes around in front of their fans under the lights at Maverik Stadium.

Utah State vs Troy At a Glance

• Game Venue: Merlin Olsen Field At Maverik Stadium in Logan, UT
• Game Date & Time: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 7:30 PM
• TV Coverage: CBSS
• Utah State Aggies Record: 0-3 this season
• Troy Trojans Record: 2-1 this season
• Game Odds: Utah State is favored at -155 on the moneyline

Utah State Aggies Prepare for a Crucial Home Game

Offensive Performance

The Utah State Aggies have struggled offensively this season, managing just 31 points, placing them at 80th nationally. Their passing game has yet to find rhythm, with only 571 passing yards, ranking 90th. The rushing attack has also been lacking, recording just 295 yards and sitting at 116th.

Despite these challenges, the Aggies have shown some promise in achieving first downs, ranking 35th with 53 first downs. This suggests that the team can sustain drives but needs to convert these opportunities into points. Improving red-zone efficiency will be key for the Aggies moving forward.

Defensive Challenges

On the defensive side, Utah State has given up 78 points this season, ranking 55th in points against. The Aggies have had success pressuring quarterbacks, recording five sacks which is good enough for 10th nationally. However, interceptions have been elusive, with the Aggies yet to record one this season.

Fumbles have been a slight bright spot for the defense, recovering one, placing them 6th in the nation. Overall, the defense will need to create more turnovers and tighten up in critical situations to help the team secure their first win.

Quarterback Play

Grady Brosterhous has been the primary quarterback for the Aggies, attempting 70 passes and throwing for 393 yards. While his completion efforts have shown promise, with two touchdowns, he has also thrown five interceptions, which has hindered offensive momentum.

McCae Hillstead, who has also seen some playing time, has thrown for 178 yards and two touchdowns in his appearance. However, his status for the next game is questionable due to a forearm injury, leaving the Aggies potentially reliant on Brosterhous.

Key Players and Injury Concerns

Running back Javen Jacobs leads the rushing effort with 108 yards over three games, but the team has yet to record a rushing touchdown. Receiver Eli Wood has been a reliable target, amassing 190 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

On the injury front, linebacker Harrison Taggart is questionable due to an undisclosed injury, which could impact the Aggies' defensive plans. The team will need to adjust if Taggart and Hillstead are unavailable for their upcoming home game.

Team Betting Trends

• SU - As Favorite: Last 27 Games (2021–2026) → 22-5 (81.5%)
• ATS - Home Games: Last 9 Games (2024–2026) → 8-1 (88.9%)
• ATS - All Games: Last 18 Games (2024–2026) → 14-4 (77.8%)
• ATS - Totals ≥ 50: Last 18 Games (2024–2026) → 14-4 (77.8%)
• ATS - After Win: Last 8 Games (2024–2025) → 7-1 (87.5%)
• ATS - As Underdog: Last 11 Games (2024–2026) → 9-2 (81.8%)

Troy Trojans Set to Battle Utah State Aggies

Offensive Performance

Troy's offensive unit has been steady this season, racking up 75 points, placing them 56th nationally. The passing attack, led by Goose Crowder, has generated 596 yards, which is ranked 86th. Meanwhile, their ground game has gained 498 yards, earning a 67th place ranking.

Crowder's leadership as the starting quarterback has been instrumental, with 83 passing attempts and 596 yards to his name. The team averages 18.3 first downs per game, reflecting a balanced offensive approach.

Defensive Strengths

Troy's defense has shown notable strength, allowing only 65 points so far, positioning them at 44th in the nation. Their pass rush has been particularly effective, amassing 7 sacks, which is tied for 8th. This defensive pressure has also contributed to 1 interception and a recovered fumble, both ranked near the top.

The defense's ability to force turnovers and pressure quarterbacks has been pivotal in their early-season performance. Their defensive depth will be crucial as they face the offensive threats of Utah State.

Key Players to Watch

Running back Jaheim Merriweather leads the rushing attack with 193 yards and 3 touchdowns, showcasing his ability to find the end zone. Wide receiver TK Keyes is a standout with 250 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, making him a key target for Crowder.

The Troy defense will rely on their front seven to disrupt Utah State's game plan, with sack leaders looking to continue their success. Ethan Head's consistent performance in special teams will also be an asset, having made all 9 of his extra-point attempts this season.

Recent Game Insights

In their latest game, Troy fell to Missouri with a score of 27-17, highlighting areas for improvement on both sides of the ball. Despite the loss, Troy's defense limited Missouri to 91 passing yards, demonstrating their secondary's capability.

The game against Alabama State saw Troy's offense shine, securing a 34-17 victory with a balanced attack of 201 passing yards and 227 rushing yards. Their opening game win against Sam Houston, 24-21, showcased their resilience in tight contests.

Upcoming Challenges

Troy's upcoming schedule includes a challenging away game against Utah State, followed by a home game against Southern Miss. With both games presenting unique challenges, Troy will need to leverage their strengths in defense and special teams.

Their ability to adapt and strategize effectively will be tested in the coming weeks. Preparation and execution will be key as they navigate these competitive matchups.

Team Betting Trends

• SU - As Favorite: 26-4 (86.7%)
• ATS - Away Games: 21-5 (80.8%)
• SU - Home Games: 22-6 (78.6%)
• SU - Totals ≥ 50: 4-0 (100.0%)
• SU - After Win: 22-8 (73.3%)
• ATS - As Underdog: 3-0 (100.0%)
• ATS - After Win: 20-9 (69.0%)
• ATS - All Games: 14-7 (66.7%)
• SU - All Games: 13-7 (65.0%)
• ATS - As Favorite: 12-7 (63.2%)
• SU - After Loss: 5-2 (71.4%)
• SU - Away Games: 14-10 (58.3%)
• O/U - After Win: 16-13 (55.2%)
• ATS - Totals ≥ 50: 15-12 (55.6%)
• O/U - As Favorite: 9-6 (60.0%)
• ATS - After Loss: 5-3 (62.5%)
• ATS - Home Games: 13-14 (48.1%)
• O/U - Home Games: 14-16 (46.7%)
• SU - As Underdog: 4-3 (57.1%)
• O/U - Away Games: 13-16 (44.8%)

Utah State vs Troy Prediction: Troy +3

The Utah State Aggies are struggling this season, holding a 0-3 record so far, including a 0-1 record at home. Their offense has been lackluster, ranking 80th in points scored with only 31 total points this season. Despite being favorites, their current form and offensive struggles make them vulnerable against a capable opponent like Troy.

Meanwhile, the Troy Trojans have shown resilience on the road, posting a strong ATS record of 21-5 in their last 26 away games. Their defense has been solid, ranked 44th in points against, which could spell trouble for Utah State's already struggling offense. Troy's recent performance and defensive capabilities give them a good chance to cover the +3 spread.

Although Utah State has a strong track record against the spread at home, their current form does not inspire confidence. Troy, on the other hand, has covered the spread in all recent games as an underdog, indicating they thrive in this role. With Utah State's offensive limitations and Troy's solid defense, backing Troy +3 seems the more favorable option.

Projected Final Score: Troy 24 - Utah State 21. This projected score supports a play on Troy +3 as they cover the spread by winning outright or losing by a narrow margin.

• Utah State vs Troy Prediction: Troy +3
• Utah State vs Troy Score: Troy 24 - Utah State 21

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