Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction & Betting Tips for Week 9 on 10/31/2026

Saturday's night game on October 31, 2026, will see the Mississippi State Bulldogs visiting the Texas Longhorns at the Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. This Week 9 matchup is a prime time showdown set to be broadcast on ESPN at 7:30 PM ET. With both teams competing in the Southeastern Conference, the game promises to be a fierce battle under the lights.

The Bulldogs enter the game with a 4-3 record, with notable road wins contributing to their 2-1 away record. Recently, they experienced a tough 23-15 loss to Oklahoma Sooners. Despite this setback, the Bulldogs aim to improve their standing and make a statement against a highly ranked opponent.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns, ranked #11 in both the AP and Coaches Polls, hold a 5-2 record with a solid 4-1 mark at home. After a recent 34-27 victory over Ole Miss Rebels, Texas looks to capitalize on their home-field advantage. The Longhorns aim to bolster their position in the conference and further prove their prowess this season.

Texas vs Mississippi State At a Glance (Week 9)

• Game Date and Time: Saturday, October 31, 2026, at 7:30 PM ET
• Location: Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
• Broadcast: ESPN
• Texas Longhorns Record: 5-2 this season, ranked #11 in both AP and Coaches Poll
• Mississippi State Bulldogs Record: 4-3 this season
• Odds: Texas Moneyline -1437, Mississippi State Moneyline +842

Texas Longhorns Ready to Stampede Over Mississippi State Bulldogs

Offensive Overview

The Texas Longhorns have been building their offensive stats throughout the 2026 season, accumulating a total of 215 points, placing them at 46th in the rankings. In terms of passing, they have amassed 1,573 yards, ranking 78th, while their rushing attack has gained 1,029 yards, securing the 88th position. The Longhorns have managed to convert these opportunities into 144 first downs, which ranks them 40th in the nation.

Arch Manning is leading the charge as the starting quarterback, showcasing his talent with 1,510 passing yards and 12 touchdowns so far this season. Complementing Manning's efforts are running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers, with Brown leading the rushing department with 422 yards and five touchdowns.

Defensive Stand

Defensively, Texas has conceded 134 points, ranking 65th in the league. Their defensive line has been effective in putting pressure on opponents, recording 19 sacks, which is the 10th best in the country. The Longhorns' secondary has also been proactive, securing six interceptions, ranking them 7th nationally.

Key players to watch on defense include Colin Simmons and Kobe Black, both of whom are currently listed as questionable. Their presence on the field could be pivotal for Texas in their upcoming game.

Recent Performance

In their last five games, Texas has posted a 3-2 record, with their latest victory coming against Ole Miss, where they emerged with a 34-27 win. This game showcased the team's resilience, especially in their ability to recover from turnovers, as they managed two interceptions against Ole Miss. However, Texas must work on ball security, having fumbled once in that game.

Against Florida, the Longhorns suffered a narrow defeat, 27-24, where they struggled to maintain possession, achieving only 13 first downs. Despite the setbacks, Texas demonstrated strength in their passing game with 173 yards.

Key Injuries

Texas will need to monitor several injuries ahead of their next game. Hollywood Smothers, Cam Coleman, and Colin Simmons are all listed as questionable, which could impact the team both offensively and defensively. The absence of offensive linemen Trevor Goosby and Jaydon Chatman might also pose challenges for the Longhorns' protection schemes.

Betting Trends

• SU - Home Games: 25-3 (89.3%) in the last 28 games.
• SU - As Favorite: 25-5 (83.3%) in the last 30 games.
• SU - After Win: 25-5 (83.3%) in the last 30 games.
• SU - Totals ≥ 50: 25-5 (83.3%) in the last 30 games.
• SU - All Games: 23-7 (76.7%) in the last 30 games.
• SU - After Loss: 11-2 (84.6%) in the last 13 games.
• SU - Away Games: 15-5 (75.0%) in the last 20 games.
• ATS - After Loss: 3-1 (75.0%) in the last 4 games.
• ATS - Home Games: 14-11 (56.0%) in the last 25 games.
• O/U - As Favorite: 8-6 (57.1%) in the last 14 games.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: A Look at the Upcoming Game

Quarterback Analysis

Kamario Taylor is leading the charge for the Bulldogs at the quarterback position. Having played in six games, Taylor has thrown for 1,460 yards and 17 touchdowns, making him a key player in the Bulldogs' offensive strategy. His ability to connect with receivers like Anthony Evans III could be vital in overcoming the Longhorns' defense.

Backing him up is Parker Puckett, who has also seen action in four games this season. Puckett has contributed 368 passing yards and one touchdown, providing a reliable option should Taylor face any challenges. His presence adds depth to Mississippi State's quarterback roster.

Running Back Contributions

Fluff Bothwell has been a standout performer in the Bulldogs' rushing attack. With 514 rushing yards and three touchdowns over six games, he is a significant threat on the ground. Bothwell's dual-threat capability, demonstrated by his 104 receiving yards, adds a versatile dimension to their offense.

Kolin Wilson has also been effective, accumulating 218 rushing yards over seven games. Although he hasn't scored a rushing touchdown yet, his consistent yardage gains provide a solid backup to Bothwell. Wilson's contributions in the passing game further enhance his value to the team.

Wide Receiver Impact

Anthony Evans III leads the receiving corps with 647 yards and five touchdowns across seven games. His ability to create separation and make big plays downfield will be crucial for the Bulldogs. Evans' performances have been a highlight in an otherwise challenging season.

Sanfrisco Magee has also made his presence felt with 360 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Magee's knack for finding the end zone makes him a red-zone threat that the Longhorns' defense must account for. His contributions could tip the scales in favor of Mississippi State.

Team Betting Trends

• SU - As Favorite: Last 14 Games (2022–2026) → 13-1 (92.9%)
• ATS - As Favorite: Last 6 Games (2024–2026) → 6-0 (100.0%)
• O/U - Home Games: Last 30 Games (2022–2026) → 21-9 (70.0%)
• ATS - After Win: Last 10 Games (2024–2026) → 8-2 (80.0%)
• O/U - After Loss: Last 28 Games (2022–2026) → 19-9 (67.9%)

Texas vs Mississippi State Week 9 Prediction: Mississippi State +20.5

With a spread of +20.5, Mississippi State Bulldogs present an appealing option as they travel to face the Texas Longhorns. Despite Mississippi State's recent loss to Oklahoma, they have a solid track record on the road this season with a 2-1 record. Moreover, they have historically covered large spreads against Texas in previous matchups, making them a strong candidate to cover once again.

Texas has been formidable at home with a 4-1 record, but covering a 20.5 point spread might be challenging against a Southeastern Conference rival. Mississippi State's offense, ranked 50th in points for, should be capable of putting points on the board and keeping the game within reach. Their defensive unit, which ranks 107th in points against, will need to step up, but Texas' offense, ranked 46th in points for, is not vastly superior.

Mississippi State's performance against totals of 50 or more points shows they can be competitive, with their ATS record being favorable in such scenarios. Texas' ATS trends suggest a potential struggle to cover large spreads, particularly following a win. This sets up Mississippi State to potentially exceed expectations and keep the game competitive.

In terms of a projected final score, Texas should still emerge on top given their higher ranking and home advantage, but Mississippi State is likely to keep it closer than expected. A projected score of Texas 34 - Mississippi State 17 supports the Bulldogs' ability to cover the spread.

• Texas vs Mississippi State Prediction: Mississippi State +20.5
• Texas vs Mississippi State Score: Texas 34 - Mississippi State 17

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