Texas State vs North Texas Prediction & Betting Tips for Week 3 on 9/19/2026

The North Texas Mean Green will travel to San Marcos, Texas to play against the Texas State Bobcats in Week 3 of the 2026 regular season. This game is set to take place at the outdoor UFCU Stadium with a kickoff time of 12:00 PM. Football fans can catch the action live on USA Network.

North Texas comes into this game with a 1-1 record, having secured a decisive 44-6 victory against UNLV in their last outing. Despite an impressive home performance, they struggled on the road in Week 1, losing 52-16 to Indiana. The Mean Green will be looking to improve their away record and build momentum in this non-conference matchup.

On the other side, the Texas State Bobcats are seeking their first win of the season after falling short in their initial two games. The Bobcats put up a competitive fight against UTSA, losing 31-26, and will aim to bounce back at home. Playing in the competitive Pac-12 Conference, Texas State will look to leverage home-field advantage to turn their season around.

Texas State vs North Texas At a Glance

• Game Week: Week 3 of the 2026 Regular Season
• Venue: UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, TX
• TV Broadcast: USA Network
• Game Date and Time: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM
• North Texas Record: 1-1 this season
• Texas State Record: 0-2 this season

Texas State Bobcats Aim for Redemption at Home

Offensive Strategy

The Texas State Bobcats have had a mixed start offensively in the 2026 season, averaging 33 points per game which places them 65th nationally. The team has been more effective on the ground, ranking 33rd with 450 rushing yards. Despite the rushing success, their passing game sits at 92nd with 380 yards, highlighting an area for improvement.

Key to the Bobcats' offensive success is quarterback Brad Jackson, who in the previous season threw for 3,049 yards, ranking 22nd nationally. With returning players like Lincoln Pare, who rushed for 1,023 yards last season, the Bobcats have a solid foundation for a dynamic offensive attack.

Defensive Challenges

Defensively, Texas State has struggled early on, conceding 90 points over the first two games. Despite this, the Bobcats have been effective in creating turnovers, with a second-ranked tally of interceptions this season. The team has only managed one sack, indicating a need for improvement in pressuring opposing quarterbacks.

For the Bobcats to find success against North Texas, they will need to capitalize on their ability to create interceptions and bolster their pass rush. Consistency in defense will be crucial to counteracting the current points against ranking of 69th.

Recent Performance

The Bobcats are currently 0-2, coming off a narrow 31-26 loss to the UTSA Roadrunners at home. In that game, Texas State showcased a potent rushing attack with 289 yards on the ground. However, their efforts were hindered by turnovers, with two interceptions and two fumbles committed.

Against Texas in their season opener, the Bobcats faced a tough 59-7 defeat, where they allowed 360 passing yards and struggled to contain a high-powered offense. These early performances underline the need for Texas State to minimize errors and tighten up their defense.

Injury Concerns

The Bobcats are dealing with a few injury issues that could impact their performance against North Texas. Wide receiver Beau Sparks is questionable with an undisclosed injury, which could hinder the passing game. Additionally, kicker Jacob Bonilla's leg injury adds uncertainty to special teams.

With these injury concerns, other players will need to step up and fill the void, particularly in the receiving corps where Sparks' absence could be felt. Ensuring depth and readiness among the squad will be essential for Texas State's competitiveness.

Betting Trends

• SU - Home Games: 17-9 (65.4%) over the last 26 games.
• O/U - All Games: 12-6 (66.7%) over the last 18 games.
• O/U - Totals ≥ 50: 12-6 (66.7%) over the last 18 games.
• O/U - After Loss: 13-7-1 (61.9%) over the last 21 games.
• O/U - As Favorite: 9-4 (69.2%) over the last 13 games.

North Texas Mean Green Gears Up for Away Challenge Against Texas State

Quarterback Situation

Chris Jimerson Jr. is the primary quarterback for North Texas. Last season, Jimerson demonstrated his potential with 37 passing yards per game over five games. Despite limited action, his presence as a leader on the field is vital for the Mean Green offense.

Backing him up is Tom von Grote, who appeared in one game last season. Although he didn't have any passing stats from last year, his role as a backup is crucial in providing depth and experience to the quarterback position.

Running Back Dynamics

Jayden Becks leads the running back group for North Texas. Last year, he played in four games, averaging 87 rushing yards per game and scoring two touchdowns. His ability to contribute both on the ground and through receptions makes him a versatile weapon.

Becks' dual-threat capability is complemented by his skills in the receiving game, with 17 receiving yards over three receptions last season. His dynamic playstyle could be a key factor against Texas State.

Wide Receiver Corps

Cameron Dorner stands out among the wide receivers, having recorded 49 receptions for 820 yards and six touchdowns last season. His consistent performance makes him a reliable target for Jimerson Jr.

Simeon Evans adds depth to the receiving corps, contributing 125 receiving yards last season. Alongside Dalton Carnes, who recorded 80 yards, the receiving unit aims to support the offensive efforts against Texas State.

Team Betting Trends

• SU - As Favorite: 26-4 (86.7%) over the last 30 games.
• ATS - All Games: 11-2 (84.6%) over the last 13 games.
• O/U - Away Games: 11-2 (84.6%) over the last 13 games.
• ATS - Totals ≥ 50: 11-2 (84.6%) over the last 13 games.
• SU - All Games: 13-3 (81.2%) over the last 16 games.
• SU - Totals ≥ 50: 13-3 (81.2%) over the last 16 games.
• SU - After Win: 15-4 (78.9%) over the last 19 games.
• SU - Home Games: 4-0 (100.0%) over the last 4 games.
• ATS - Home Games: 4-0 (100.0%) over the last 4 games.
• O/U - After Win: 20-8 (71.4%) over the last 28 games.

Texas State vs North Texas Prediction: North Texas +3

Looking at the current season's statistics, North Texas has shown a strong offensive performance, scoring 60 points in two games. Their passing and rushing yards rank in the top 70 nationally, indicating a balanced offensive attack. Considering their recent 44-6 win over UNLV, they seem to have the momentum to cover the spread against Texas State.

Texas State, on the other hand, is struggling with a 0-2 record and a defense that has allowed 90 points in two games, ranking them 69th in points against. Despite playing at home, their defensive struggles could be exploited by North Texas's potent offense. Texas State's offensive output has also been underwhelming, scoring just 33 points so far.

Given the statistical evidence and current form, North Texas as a 3-point underdog seems to have a favorable chance to cover the spread. Their superior offensive numbers and recent success give them an edge over Texas State, who will need to overcome significant defensive challenges.

The betting trends also support North Texas's potential to cover the spread, especially with their impressive 11-2 ATS record over their last 13 games. This suggests they have consistently performed well against expectations, making them a solid pick for this matchup.

• Texas State vs North Texas Prediction: North Texas +3
• Texas State vs North Texas Score: North Texas 31 - Texas State 28

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