The Incarnate Word Cardinals will hit the road for their Week 4 matchup against the Texas State Bobcats at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, TX. Scheduled for a 6:00 PM kickoff on September 26, 2026, this game offers the Cardinals a chance to earn their first win after a rough start to the previous season. With the game being broadcast on USA, the Cardinals have a national platform to showcase their talents. Currently holding a 1-2 record, the Texas State Bobcats will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. Their recent victory over North Texas, where they scored 49 points, suggests that the Bobcats’ offense has found its rhythm. Despite their losses to UTSA and Texas, the team is eager to strengthen their position in the Pac-12 conference standings. The Cardinals come into this game with a significant challenge ahead, as reflected in the consensus odds. With a moneyline of +1600, the odds are stacked against them, but these are the types of games where teams can surprise. Both teams are expected to bring energy and determination to the field, setting the stage for an intriguing evening of college football.

Texas State vs Incarnate Word At a Glance (Week 4)

  • Game Week: Week 4 of the 2026 Regular Season
  • Location: UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, TX — Outdoor Field
  • Kickoff Time: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 6:00 PM
  • TV Channel: USA
  • Moneyline Odds: Incarnate Word +1600, Texas State -4500
  • Spread: Texas State -30.5

Texas State Bobcats Prepare for a Home Game Showdown

Offensive Strengths

The Texas State Bobcats have demonstrated a strong running game this season, ranking 12th nationally with 787 rushing yards. Leading the charge is Torrance Burgess Jr., who has accumulated 397 rushing yards, placing him 6th in individual rankings. Complementing the ground attack, Davian Jackson has contributed significantly with 205 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

In the passing game, quarterback Brad Jackson has been consistent, with 610 passing yards and five touchdowns to his name. Chris Dawn Jr. is his go-to target, having caught 15 passes for 201 yards and three touchdowns. The Bobcats' offense ranks 13th in first downs, showcasing their ability to sustain drives and control the game flow.

Defensive Outlook

On the defensive side, the Bobcats have faced challenges, currently ranked 85th in points against with 125 points allowed. They have shown promise in turnovers, with two interceptions ranking them 3rd nationally. Their ability to recover fumbles also stands out, ranking 6th with one recovery this season.

Despite the early struggles, the defense has shown the potential to disrupt opposing offenses, notably achieving a key interception in their win against North Texas. The team continues to focus on improving their pass rush and tightening coverage to limit scoring opportunities for opponents.

Recent Performances

Texas State's season record currently stands at 1-2. Their most recent victory was a high-scoring affair against North Texas, winning 49-35. The Bobcats demonstrated their offensive capabilities with a dominant rushing performance, totaling 337 yards on the ground.

Prior to that, they suffered a close loss to UTSA, 31-26, and a heavy defeat against Texas, 59-7. These games highlighted areas for improvement on both sides of the ball, particularly in pass defense and minimizing turnovers.

Injury Report

The Bobcats have a few concerns heading into their next game, with key players like Beau Sparks, Zechariah Sample, and Kylen Evans listed as questionable. Evans is dealing with a shoulder injury, which could impact their receiving depth. The coaching staff will need to adjust if these players are unavailable.

Upcoming Matchup

The Bobcats are set to host the Incarnate Word Cardinals at UFCU Stadium. This home game provides an opportunity for Texas State to leverage their strengths and secure a second win. With their strong running game and home-field advantage, they are positioned as 29.5-point favorites.

Team Betting Trends

  • SU - Home Games: Last 27 Games (2022–2026) → 18-9 (66.7%)
  • O/U - All Games: Last 19 Games (2024–2026) → 13-6 (68.4%)
  • O/U - Totals ≥ 50: Last 19 Games (2024–2026) → 13-6 (68.4%)
  • O/U - As Favorite: Last 14 Games (2024–2026) → 10-4 (71.4%)
  • O/U - After Loss: Last 22 Games (2022–2026) → 14-7-1 (63.6%)
  • SU - As Favorite: Last 30 Games (2022–2026) → 18-12 (60.0%)
  • O/U - Home Games: Last 10 Games (2024–2026) → 7-3 (70.0%)
  • SU - After Loss: Last 27 Games (2021–2026) → 16-11 (59.3%)
  • O/U - Away Games: Last 20 Games (2022–2026) → 12-8 (60.0%)
  • O/U - After Win: Last 9 Games (2024–2026) → 6-3 (66.7%)

Incarnate Word Cardinals: Challenges and Opportunities Await in Upcoming Game

Offensive Struggles

The Incarnate Word Cardinals' offensive output last season was less than ideal, ranking 127th in points scored with just 20. Their passing attack showed potential with 324 yards, but still landed them at 142nd. On the ground, the Cardinals struggled significantly, amassing only 46 rushing yards and placing 194th.

Richard Torres, who is at the helm as the starting quarterback, has shown glimpses of talent. Last season, he registered 20 passing attempts with 111 yards, though interceptions were a concern. The team will need more consistency from him to improve their offensive ranking.

Defensive Challenges

On defense, the Cardinals ranked 14th in points allowed, conceding an average of 48 points. The team failed to record any sacks or interceptions, which placed them at the bottom of the rankings. This lack of pressure on opposing offenses has been a significant hurdle for the Cardinals.

With no recorded fumble recoveries, the defense struggled to generate turnovers. Defensive improvements will be key in reducing the burden on their offense and creating more opportunities to win games.

Key Players to Watch

Jaylon Spears, their primary running back, will be looked upon to ignite the ground game. In his previous outing, Spears rushed for only 26 yards, so he will need to step up to aid the team's offensive balance. Harlan Dixon, another running back, had 15 yards and will also need to contribute more significantly.

In the receiving corps, Jameson Garcia stands out with 78 yards on 8 receptions in his previous performance. Wide receivers Matthew Ramirez and Isaiah Champagne also have roles to play in expanding the passing game.

Special Teams and Kicking Game

Will Faris, the team's kicker, did not record any field goals in the last game but successfully made 2 extra points. Special teams' contributions will be crucial in close contests, especially given the offensive struggles.

Betting Trends for Incarnate Word Cardinals

  • O/U - All Games: 3-1 in the last 4 games (75.0%)
  • O/U - As Underdog: 3-1 in the last 4 games (75.0%)
  • O/U - Away Games: 3-1 in the last 4 games (75.0%)
  • O/U - Totals ≥ 50: 3-1 in the last 4 games (75.0%)
  • SU - All Games: 2-2 in the last 4 games (50.0%)
  • ATS - All Games: 2-2 in the last 4 games (50.0%)
  • SU - As Underdog: 2-2 in the last 4 games (50.0%)
  • ATS - As Underdog: 2-2 in the last 4 games (50.0%)
  • SU - Away Games: 2-2 in the last 4 games (50.0%)
  • ATS - Away Games: 2-2 in the last 4 games (50.0%)
  • SU - Totals ≥ 50: 2-2 in the last 4 games (50.0%)
  • ATS - Totals ≥ 50: 2-2 in the last 4 games (50.0%)

Texas State vs Incarnate Word Week 4 Prediction: Over 64.5

The Texas State Bobcats have shown a tendency for high-scoring games, as evidenced by their 49-35 victory against North Texas. Their offensive stats this season support a strong offensive performance, with 82 total points in three games. Additionally, Texas State has been successful in hitting the over in 68.4% of their games since 2024, making the over a compelling choice.

On the other hand, Incarnate Word has struggled defensively, giving up 48 points in their recent loss to UTSA. Their defensive stats from the previous season also highlight a vulnerability, with an average of 48 points allowed per game. With both teams displaying tendencies for high-scoring outcomes, the chances for an over seem promising.

The Bobcats' home performance adds further weight to the over prediction, achieving a 70% success rate in hitting the over for games played at UFCU Stadium. Furthermore, Texas State's offensive capabilities are evident in their rushing yards and first downs, currently ranked 12th and 13th, respectively, this season. These elements indicate a potential for Texas State to dominate offensively, contributing to a high total score.

Considering the trends and the offensive and defensive profiles of both teams, a final scoreline in favor of Texas State looks likely. A projected score of 45-24 in favor of the Bobcats supports the over 64.5 total points line, as both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring game.

  • Texas State vs Incarnate Word Prediction: Over 64.5
  • Texas State vs Incarnate Word Score: Texas State 45 - Incarnate Word 24

Disclaimer: Knup Predictions are for entertainment and informational purposes only. Must be 21+ where applicable. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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