TCU vs Kansas State Prediction & Betting Tips for Week 11 on 11/14/2026

The Kansas State Wildcats are set to travel to Fort Worth, Texas, to take on the TCU Horned Frogs in a Week 11 Big 12 conference game. Both teams enter this contest with identical records of 4-5, looking to improve their standings in the conference. The game will be held at Amon G. Carter Stadium, kicking off at 2:00 PM on Saturday, November 14, 2026, and will be broadcast on ESNU.

Kansas State has struggled on the road this season, holding a 0-3 record away from Bill Snyder Family Stadium. The Wildcats have also found it challenging within the conference, sitting at 1-5 in Big 12 play. Their recent form has not been impressive, as they lost their last game against Oklahoma State, 66-28, at home.

The TCU Horned Frogs, on the other hand, have shown more promise at home with a 3-3 record. Their conference record stands at 2-4, and they narrowly lost their most recent game against Arizona, 29-28. TCU will be aiming to leverage their home advantage to secure a much-needed victory in front of their fans.

TCU vs Kansas State At a Glance (Week 11)

• Game Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 2:00 PM
• Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX
• TV Channel: ESNU
• Kansas State Record: 4-5 overall, 1-5 in Big 12
• TCU Record: 4-5 overall, 2-4 in Big 12
• Odds: TCU favored with a spread of -10.5

TCU Horned Frogs Set to Challenge Kansas State at Home

Offensive Overview

The TCU Horned Frogs have shown a strong passing game this season, currently ranked 25th in passing yards nationally with 2,439 yards. Quarterback Jaden Craig has been instrumental, ranking first on the team with 2,439 passing yards and 12 touchdowns. However, the running game has struggled, ranking 122nd nationally with only 1,006 rushing yards.

Leading the rushing attack is Jeremy Payne, who has 429 yards and two touchdowns across six games. Despite his efforts, the overall ground game lacks the punch needed to support their aerial attack effectively. Improvement in this area could be pivotal in balancing the offense against Kansas State.

Defensive Analysis

Defensively, TCU ranks 60th in points allowed with 142, showing moderate effectiveness in keeping opponents at bay. The Horned Frogs' pass rush has been a bright spot, recording 19 sacks, ranking them 18th nationally. Their ability to disrupt the quarterback will be key against Kansas State's offense.

TCU's secondary has been opportunistic, securing six interceptions and ranking seventh nationally. This ball-hawking ability could be critical in stalling Kansas State's offensive drives. Additionally, their defense has recovered six fumbles, also ranking sixth, indicating a knack for creating turnovers.

Key Players to Watch

Wide receiver Ed Small has been a reliable target for Craig, leading the team with 568 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Tight end Kari Ashley has also been productive, contributing 655 yards and four touchdowns, providing a valuable outlet in the passing game.

On defense, the Horned Frogs will look to their playmakers to maintain their turnover production. The secondary's performance, coupled with a strong pass rush, will be crucial in controlling the game's tempo and limiting Kansas State's scoring opportunities.

Recent Form and Injury Concerns

TCU enters this game with a recent record of 2-3, coming off a narrow 29-28 loss to Arizona. This recent stretch has highlighted inconsistencies, especially in their rushing attack and closing out games. They'll aim to bounce back with a solid performance against Kansas State.

Injury concerns loom over TCU, with several players listed as questionable, including wide receivers Keagan Cunningham and Terry Shelton. Running back Jon Denman is also uncertain, which could impact their already struggling rushing game.

Team Betting Trends

• SU - As Favorite: Last 20 Games (2024–2026) → 15-5 (75.0%)
• SU - After Loss: Last 11 Games (2024–2026) → 9-2 (81.8%)
• ATS - After Loss: Last 11 Games (2024–2026) → 9-2 (81.8%)
• SU - Home Games: Last 30 Games (2022–2026) → 20-10 (66.7%)
• ATS - Home Games: Last 14 Games (2024–2026) → 9-5 (64.3%)

Kansas State Wildcats Look to Rebound Against TCU Horned Frogs

TCU Horned Frogs Offensive Outlook

The TCU Horned Frogs are looking to capitalize on their offensive strategies in the upcoming game against Kansas State. Their quarterback, Josh Hoover, is expected to lead the charge. Hoover's ability to extend plays and find open targets will be crucial in this matchup.

In the backfield, the Horned Frogs rely on the dynamic rushing abilities of Emani Bailey. His agility and vision on the field are significant assets. The Wildcats' defense will need to focus on containing Bailey to limit TCU's ground game success.

Defensive Strategies for TCU

Defensively, TCU aims to pressure Kansas State's quarterbacks, potentially exploiting their recent injury concerns. The Horned Frogs' defensive line will be key in disrupting the Wildcats' offensive rhythm.

Linebacker Johnny Hodges plays a pivotal role in the Horned Frogs' defensive scheme. His leadership and ability to read plays make him a standout figure in TCU's defense. Keeping an eye on Hodges will be essential for Kansas State's offensive line.

Key Matchups to Watch

The matchup between TCU's wide receivers and Kansas State's secondary will be a highlight of the game. Savion Williams, a top target for TCU, has the capability to create big plays.

Kansas State's secondary will need to be alert and adaptable to counter Williams' threat. This matchup could significantly impact the game's outcome and is one to watch closely.

TCU's Special Teams Impact

Special teams play a crucial role in TCU's overall strategy. Griffin Kell, their reliable kicker, could be a deciding factor in close game scenarios.

TCU will look to leverage Kell's consistency in field goals and extra points. Effective special teams play could give the Horned Frogs an edge in crucial moments.

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Trends

• O/U - As Favorite: Last 20 Games (2024–2026) → 15-5 (75.0%)
• SU - Home Games: Last 25 Games (2023–2026) → 18-7 (72.0%)
• ATS - After Win: Last 10 Games (2025–2026) → 7-3 (70.0%)
• SU - After Win: Last 30 Games (2022–2026) → 20-10 (66.7%)
• O/U - Home Games: Last 15 Games (2024–2026) → 10-5 (66.7%)

TCU vs Kansas State Week 11 Prediction: Over 45.5

The TCU Horned Frogs and Kansas State Wildcats are both coming into this game with identical records of 4-5. However, their recent performances suggest potential for a higher-scoring affair. Kansas State's recent 28–66 loss to Oklahoma State highlights defensive vulnerabilities that TCU could exploit.

Kansas State has been involved in several high-scoring games this season, particularly when playing on the road. Their defense ranks 111th in points against, allowing 241 points this season, which could be favorable for TCU's offense that ranks 72nd with 214 points scored.

TCU's offensive strength lies in their passing game, ranked 25th with 2439 passing yards. Given Kansas State's lower-ranking pass defense, TCU has the potential to put up significant points. Historical data further supports this prediction, as the previous head-to-head encounters have often seen scores surpassing the current over/under line of 45.5.

Taking into account the combined offensive capabilities and defensive challenges both teams face, the prediction leans towards a higher scoring game. Thus, the recommendation is to take the Over 45.5.

• TCU vs Kansas State Prediction: Over 45.5
• TCU vs Kansas State Score: TCU 31 - Kansas State 24

Disclaimer: Knup Predictions are for entertainment and informational purposes only. Must be 21+ where applicable. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.