South Alabama vs Troy Prediction & Betting Tips for Week 11 on 11/14/2026

In Week 11 of the 2026 college football season, the Troy Trojans are set to take on the South Alabama Jaguars at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. Both teams enter the game with a 4-5 record, making this contest crucial for their hopes of securing a postseason bid. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+ and is slated to begin at 7:00 PM.

Troy has faced challenges on the road this season, with a 1-3 record away from home. In their most recent outing, they struggled against Louisiana Tech, falling 41-17. Despite these setbacks, the Trojans did manage a win against James Madison in Week 9, highlighting their potential to compete against strong opponents.

South Alabama, with a 3-1 home record, has shown resilience at Hancock Whitney Stadium. However, they are coming off a narrow 28-26 defeat to Louisiana-Lafayette. The Jaguars have displayed a potent rushing attack, evidenced by their 305 rushing yards against Arkansas State earlier in the season.

South Alabama vs Troy At a Glance (Week 11)

• Game Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM
• Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, AL
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Game Odds: South Alabama Moneyline -153, Troy Moneyline +129
• Current Records: Troy Trojans 4-5, South Alabama Jaguars 4-5
• Weather: Outdoor Field

South Alabama Jaguars Prepare for Home Showdown Against Troy Trojans

Offensive Overview

The South Alabama Jaguars have put up a commendable offensive effort this season, scoring 292 points, which ranks them 33rd nationally. Their rushing attack stands out, accumulating 1,889 yards, making them the 18th best in the country. However, their passing game hasn't been as potent, with only 1,855 yards, placing them at 93rd.

Despite the ups and downs, the Jaguars have been able to generate 193 first downs, ranking them 31st. This shows their ability to sustain drives and move the chains. With a balanced attack, the Jaguars can be a formidable challenge for any defense.

Defensive Insights

Defensively, the Jaguars have struggled, allowing 290 points, which ranks them 137th. However, their pass rush has been effective, recording 17 sacks, placing them 20th nationally. Their ability to create turnovers is evident with 7 interceptions, the 8th highest in the nation, and 5 fumbles recovered, ranking 7th.

While the defense has had issues stopping the opposition from scoring, their knack for turnovers could be crucial in pivotal moments. They will need to tighten up against the Troy Trojans to secure a home victory.

Key Players to Watch

Quarterback Jared Hollins leads the offense with 1,195 passing yards and 9 touchdowns. His performance will be pivotal in orchestrating the Jaguars' attack. Running backs Keenan Phillips and PJ Martin form a dynamic duo in the backfield, combining for over 1,180 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns.

Wide receivers Brendan Jenkins and Anthony Eager have been reliable targets, combining for over 1,000 receiving yards. Their ability to stretch the field will be essential in opening up the ground game and keeping the Trojans' defense honest.

Recent Performance

The Jaguars have had a mixed bag of results recently, holding a 2-3 record in their last five games. Their most recent outing was a narrow 28-26 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette. Consistency has been an issue, as they've alternated between wins and losses.

The Jaguars' offense has shown flashes of brilliance, especially in their high-scoring win over Arkansas State, 56-49. However, their defense will need to step up to complement their offensive firepower.

Betting Trends

• O/U - After Win: 8-1 in the last 9 games (88.9%)
• O/U - Home Games: 12-4 in the last 16 games (75.0%)
• SU - As Favorite: 4-1 in the last 5 games (80.0%)
• SU - Home Games: 4-1 in the last 5 games (80.0%)
• O/U - All Games: 14-8 in the last 22 games (63.6%)

Injury Concerns

The Jaguars are dealing with several injuries, notably with wide receiver Micah Woods and linebacker Dylan Chiedo out for the season. Additionally, key players like DJ Moore and Shalik Hubbard are questionable, which could impact their availability.

With injuries on both sides of the ball, the Jaguars will need depth players to step up and fill those roles effectively. Overcoming these challenges will be crucial for their success against the Trojans.

The Troy Trojans: Analyzing the Away Game Performance

Current Season Overview

The Troy Trojans are heading into their away game with a 2-3 record in their last five regular season games. Their most recent outing was a significant 41-17 loss to Louisiana Tech, highlighting some of the challenges they face on the road. As the season progresses, Troy will be keen to improve their standing and secure more victories.

Despite a less-than-ideal start to the season, the Trojans have demonstrated their capability to perform well in competitive environments. They managed a notable 24-21 victory against James Madison, showcasing their potential to secure wins in tight contests.

Offensive Insights

The Trojans have put up 201 points this season, ranking them 78th in the nation. Their passing game, however, has struggled, with only 1,629 passing yards which places them 115th in the rankings. On the ground, they have been more effective, accumulating 1,600 rushing yards for a strong 40th place ranking.

Quarterback Goose Crowder leads the team's passing efforts with 1,162 yards and nine touchdowns, though his five interceptions have been a concern. The rushing attack, led by Gavin Griffin with 465 yards and four touchdowns, remains a focal point of their offensive strategy.

Defensive Challenges

Defensively, the Trojans have allowed 236 points against them, placing them at 108th in the nation. Despite this, their defense has been effective in forcing turnovers with seven interceptions and six fumble recoveries, both ranking them in the top ten.

Their ability to pressure the quarterback is evident with 18 sacks this season, earning them a 19th place ranking. Consistent defensive pressure will be crucial as they face teams with potent offensive capabilities.

Key Players to Watch

Running backs Jaheim Merriweather and Jordan Lovett have also been productive, contributing to Troy's strong rushing game. Merriweather has found the end zone five times, while Lovett adds versatility with 413 rushing yards and receiving contributions.

On the receiving end, TK Keyes has been a reliable target with 319 yards and three touchdowns. The Trojans will need his continued performance to balance their offensive attack.

Betting Trends

• SU - As Favorite: 25-5 (83.3%) over the last 30 games.
• ATS - Away Games: 22-7 (75.9%) over the last 29 games.
• SU - Home Games: 22-8 (73.3%) over the last 30 games.
• SU - Totals ≥ 50: 6-1 (85.7%) over the last 7 games.
• SU - After Win: 20-10 (66.7%) over the last 30 games.

With their current trends and statistical insights, the Trojans face a challenging road ahead. However, their ability to turn games around and secure victories will be pivotal as they continue their season journey.

South Alabama vs Troy Week 11 Prediction: Over 55.5

The South Alabama Jaguars and Troy Trojans both enter this game with identical 4-5 records, aiming to improve their standings in the Sun Belt Conference. South Alabama has shown a strong offensive capability, ranking 33rd in points for with 292 points this season. Their home record of 3-1 demonstrates their ability to perform well at Hancock Whitney Stadium.

South Alabama's recent games have frequently exceeded the total, with a trend of hitting the over in 12 of their last 16 home games. This suggests that the Jaguars have consistently been involved in high-scoring affairs, especially when playing at home. Given their offensive prowess and historical trends, they are likely to contribute significantly to the total points in this game.

The Troy Trojans have struggled on the road, holding a 1-3 away record this season, yet their offensive capabilities remain noteworthy with 201 points scored. Despite their defensive struggles, which have resulted in 236 points against, they have the potential to add to a high-scoring game with their 40th-ranked rushing offense. This dynamic could lead to a back-and-forth scoring scenario.

The total is set at 55.5, and both teams have demonstrated a propensity for games that reach or exceed this number. Combining South Alabama's tendency to go over in home games with Troy's defensive vulnerabilities suggests that this game is set to surpass the 55.5 point total. A projected final score of South Alabama 38 - Troy 31 supports the pick for the over.

• South Alabama vs Troy Prediction: Over 55.5
• South Alabama vs Troy Score: South Alabama 38 - Troy 31

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