SMU vs California Prediction & Betting Tips for the Game on 10/24/2026

The California Golden Bears will travel to Dallas to take on the SMU Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Scheduled for October 24, 2026, this Week 8 game will be aired on the CW network, with kickoff set for noon. California enters the game with a 3-4 record, looking to improve their standing in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

SMU, ranked 23rd in the AP Poll and 20th in the Coaches Poll, boasts a strong start to their season with a 5-1 record. The Mustangs have been particularly dominant at home, maintaining an undefeated 4-0 record. They will aim to continue their successful run in front of their home crowd.

The game will pit two Atlantic Coast Conference teams against each other, both looking to solidify their positions. SMU's efficient passing and strong defensive performances could pose a challenge for California, who are coming off a tough 41-7 home loss to Wake Forest. With both teams needing a win, this game is set to be a pivotal moment in their seasons.

SMU vs California At a Glance (Will be played Oct. 23 or Oct. 24)

• Game Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX
• Game Date & Time: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM
• Television Broadcast: CW
• California Golden Bears Record: 3-4 this season
• SMU Mustangs Record: 5-1 this season
• Betting Odds: SMU favored by 18.5 points

SMU Mustangs Poised for Victory in Upcoming Game

Offensive Strength

The SMU Mustangs have demonstrated a potent offense in the 2026 season, ranking 13th nationally with 1,976 passing yards. Quarterback Kevin Jennings has been a key player, throwing for 1,859 yards and 16 touchdowns in just six games. Their ability to move the ball through the air will be critical in their upcoming game.

While their rushing game has not been as dominant, ranking 96th with 855 yards, running back Kendrick Raphael has still managed to make an impact. Raphael has accumulated 542 rushing yards and six touchdowns, providing a necessary balance to their offensive attack.

Defensive Prowess

Defensively, the Mustangs have been impressive, ranking 7th in sacks with 18 and 3rd in interceptions with two so far this season. This defense has proven adept at applying pressure and forcing turnovers, which will be crucial against their next opponent. Their defensive capability will be instrumental in maintaining their winning momentum.

The team has held opponents to 128 points, ranking 69th nationally, a testament to their ability to disrupt and contain opposing offenses. This solid defensive foundation provides a stable platform for the Mustangs as they head into their next challenge.

Recent Performance

The Mustangs have maintained a strong performance at home, highlighted by their recent 23-13 victory over Virginia. Their ability to capitalize on home-field advantage will be pivotal as they face the California Golden Bears at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. With a 4-1 record this season, the Mustangs are riding high on confidence and form.

SMU's offensive line has been crucial, allowing Jennings to make plays and minimize turnovers, as evidenced by zero interceptions in their last game. This level of play will be essential in their upcoming games as they look to extend their winning streak.

Key Players to Watch

Alongside Jennings and Raphael, wide receiver Yamir Knight has been a standout performer with 35 receptions and 418 receiving yards. His ability to create opportunities downfield will be key in stretching the opposition's defense. Tight end Randy Pittman Jr. also provides a reliable option in the passing game, with 19 receptions and four touchdowns.

On special teams, kicker Nick Reed, despite being questionable, has been effective, making three field goals and 14 extra points this season. His contributions in tight games could make the difference in upcoming fixtures.

SMU Mustangs Betting Trends

• SU - After Loss: 12-0 (100.0%) in last 12 games (2022–2026)
• SU - Home Games: 23-3 (88.5%) in last 26 games (2022–2026)
• SU - As Favorite: 25-5 (83.3%) in last 30 games (2023–2026)
• SU - All Games: 22-6 (78.6%) in last 28 games (2024–2026)
• SU - After Win: 23-7 (76.7%) in last 30 games (2023–2026)
• SU - Totals ≥ 50: 23-7 (76.7%) in last 30 games (2023–2026)
• ATS - Home Games: 16-11 (59.3%) in last 27 games (2022–2026)
• ATS - All Games: 15-15 (50.0%) in last 30 games (2024–2026)

California Golden Bears Set to Challenge SMU Mustangs

Quarterback Insights

The California Golden Bears will be led by their starting quarterback, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who has shown strong performance this season. In six games, Sagapolutele has completed 182 passing attempts, accumulating 1,290 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions.

His backup, Jackson Brousseau, also contributes significantly with 701 passing yards and three touchdowns across five games. The depth in the quarterback position provides the Golden Bears with strategic options.

Running Game Analysis

Adam Mohammed leads the rushing attack with 336 yards and three touchdowns in four games. However, he is currently listed as questionable, which might affect California’s ground game strategy.

Ashten Emory, with 205 rushing yards and four touchdowns over seven games, provides depth. His consistent performance could play a key role in the upcoming game.

Receiving Corps Overview

Chase Hendricks is a standout receiver with 47 receptions and 415 yards, scoring two touchdowns in seven games. His ability to make key plays will be crucial against the Mustangs.

Ian Strong and Kyion Grayes, both contributing significantly to the receiving stats, add depth to the receiving unit. Strong's status is uncertain due to an injury, which might impact their offensive dynamics.

Defense and Special Teams

The defense has been effective in creating turnovers, with seven interceptions this season. Their ability to disrupt the opponent’s passing game will be critical.

On special teams, Towns McGough has been reliable, making five field goals and 11 extra points. His consistency adds a reliable scoring option for California.

California Golden Bears Betting Trends

• SU - As Favorite: Last 25 Games → 20-5 (80.0%)
• SU - After Loss: Last 11 Games → 9-2 (81.8%)
• ATS - After Loss: Last 5 Games → 4-1 (80.0%)
• O/U - After Loss: Last 25 Games → 15-9-1 (60.0%)
• O/U - As Underdog: Last 29 Games → 17-12 (58.6%)

SMU vs California Will be played Oct. 23 or Oct. 24 Prediction: SMU -18.5

SMU Mustangs, ranked #23 in the AP Poll, have shown remarkable consistency at home with a perfect 4-0 record this season. Their strong home performance is supported by a 23-3 straight-up record in their last 26 home games. This success at home makes them a solid pick to cover the -18.5 spread against California.

California Golden Bears have struggled, especially on the road, holding a 1-1 record away from home this season. They also suffered a heavy defeat against Wake Forest recently, losing 41-7, indicating vulnerabilities that the Mustangs can exploit. Given California's current form and SMU's home dominance, the Mustangs are likely to win convincingly.

Offensively, SMU's balanced attack ranks 44th in points scored and 13th in passing yards, which should be effective against California's defense that ranks 119th in points allowed. Defensively, SMU is also solid, ranking 69th in points against, which should contain California's offense ranked 64th in scoring.

Based on the statistics and current form of both teams, SMU should comfortably cover the spread with a projected final score of SMU 42 - California 17. This projection supports the pick of SMU -18.5.

• SMU vs California Prediction: SMU -18.5
• SMU vs California Score: SMU 42 - California 17

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