New Mexico State vs Liberty At a Glance (Week 10)
- Game Week: Week 10 of the 2026 Regular Season
- Game Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, NM
- Kickoff Time: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 8:00 PM
- Television Broadcast: ESNU
- Liberty Flames Record: 7-1 overall, 4-0 in Conference USA
- New Mexico State Aggies Record: 3-5 overall, 2-2 in Conference USA
New Mexico State Aggies Prepare for Home Battle
Offensive Overview
The New Mexico State Aggies have seen a drop in offensive production this season, currently ranked 83rd in points scored with 172. Their passing game is struggling, ranked 98th with just 1,568 yards. However, their rushing attack is slightly better, ranking 70th with 1,272 yards.
Quarterback Trey Hedden leads the team with 906 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in the first five games. His counterpart, Adam Damante, has contributed 662 passing yards and 6 touchdowns over six games. Running back James Jones has been a standout performer, amassing 889 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns over eight games.
Defensive Standpoint
The Aggies' defense is ranked 97th in points allowed, having conceded 202 points this season. They have been effective in pressuring quarterbacks, achieving 18 sacks, which ranks them 13th nationally. Their defense also ranks in the top 10 for interceptions with 8 and fumbles recovered with 2.
Despite these strengths, the Aggies need to tighten up their pass defense, as they have allowed too many scoring opportunities. Safety Bernock Iya's season-long absence due to a lacerated liver has been a significant blow to their secondary. The defense will need to step up collectively to contain their upcoming opponents.
Recent Performances
In their last five games, the Aggies have a 2-3 record. They recently suffered a 24-0 defeat at home against Jacksonville State. Before that, they managed a 30-24 win on the road against Sam Houston.
The team's home victory over Western Kentucky, winning 34-13, was a highlight. However, losses to Florida International and New Mexico have shown inconsistencies in their performance. The Aggies will need to find more consistency in both offense and defense to improve their record.
Key Players and Injuries
Wide receiver TK King, with 23 receptions and 307 yards, is questionable for the next game due to an undisclosed injury. His absence would be significant as he leads the team in receiving yards. Tight end Josiah Thomas, who has 214 receiving yards, is also uncertain to play.
Kicker Ilya Uvaydov, responsible for 5 field goals and 13 extra points, is questionable, which could impact their special teams. Defensive players like Bernock Iya and Jeremiah Sandiford are confirmed out, leaving gaps in their defensive lineup.
Upcoming Challenges
New Mexico State is scheduled to host the Liberty Flames in their next game at Aggie Memorial Stadium. Following this, they have away games against Missouri State and Middle Tennessee, with a home game against Delaware in between. Each game presents a chance for the Aggies to bolster their standing this season.
The Aggies are 17-point underdogs against Liberty, highlighting the challenge they face. With a total points line set at 46.5, a strong defensive effort will be crucial to keeping the game competitive.
Team Betting Trends
- SU - As Favorite: 16-4 (80.0%) in the last 20 games.
- ATS - After Loss: 7-1 (87.5%) in the last 8 games.
- ATS - As Favorite: 3-0 (100.0%) in the last 3 games.
- ATS - Home Games: 16-9 (64.0%) in the last 25 games.
- SU - Home Games: 15-10 (60.0%) in the last 25 games.
- ATS - Totals ≥ 50: 17-13 (56.7%) in the last 30 games.
- O/U - As Favorite: 12-8 (60.0%) in the last 20 games.
- SU - After Loss: 3-1 (75.0%) in the last 4 games.
Liberty Flames Set to Ignite the Field Against the Aggies
Aggie Offense Overview
The New Mexico State Aggies are preparing to meet the Liberty Flames with an offense looking to capitalize on their strengths. Quarterback Diego Pavia leads the Aggies, boasting a solid completion rate this season. His ability to extend plays with his legs and maintain composure under pressure will be crucial for the Aggies' success.
Running back Star Thomas will be a key player for the Aggies, offering a dual-threat capability. Thomas's agility and speed make him a significant asset in both rushing and receiving scenarios, providing Pavia with a reliable option out of the backfield.
Defensive Strategies
On the defensive side, the Aggies aim to contain Liberty's potent rushing attack. Linebacker Trevor Brohard will play a pivotal role, tasked with leading the defense and setting the tone against the Flames' running game.
Defensive lineman Lazarus Williams brings a strong presence to the Aggies' front line. His ability to disrupt plays in the backfield will be essential to limiting Liberty's offensive rhythm.
Special Teams Impact
Kicker Ethan Albertson is an integral part of the Aggies' special teams unit. His consistency in field goal attempts adds a reliable scoring option for New Mexico State when touchdowns are hard to come by.
Punter Josh Carlson will also play a vital role, as his ability to pin opponents deep in their territory could prove advantageous in controlling field position throughout the game.
Team Betting Trends
- SU - After Win: Last 15 Games (2025–2026) → 10-5 (66.7%)
- SU - Home Games: Last 10 Games (2025–2026) → 7-3 (70.0%)
- SU - Away Games: Last 10 Games (2025–2026) → 5-5 (50.0%)
- ATS - After Win: Last 10 Games (2025–2026) → 6-4 (60.0%)
- O/U - All Games: Last 10 Games (2025–2026) → 4-6 (40.0%)
- O/U - Home Games: Last 5 Games (2025–2026) → 3-2 (60.0%)
New Mexico State vs Liberty Week 10 Prediction: Liberty -17
The Liberty Flames head into Week 10 with an impressive 7-1 record and are 17-point favorites against the New Mexico State Aggies. Liberty's offense is ranked 29th in points for, and their rushing attack is particularly strong at 15th nationally. This offensive prowess, combined with their top 10-ranked defense in both interceptions and fumbles recovered, makes them a formidable opponent.
New Mexico State, on the other hand, has struggled this season with a 3-5 record. While they have been resilient at home, their record of 2-2 in Las Cruces does not inspire confidence against a high-flying Liberty team. The Aggies' offensive stats rank outside the top 70 in both rushing and passing yards, indicating potential struggles against Liberty's stout defense.
Liberty has also been exceptional against the spread (ATS) this season, going 6-0 in their last six games. Their ability to consistently cover the spread, even as favorites, suggests they are likely to extend this trend against a weaker New Mexico State team. Additionally, Liberty's previous head-to-head matchups against New Mexico State have generally favored the Flames, including a 49-10 victory over Florida International in their most recent outing.
Considering Liberty's strong overall performance, both offensively and defensively, and their recent form, they are expected to cover the spread comfortably. The projected final score for this game is Liberty 38 - New Mexico State 14, supporting a pick on Liberty to cover the spread at -17.
- New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction: Liberty -17
- New Mexico State vs Liberty Score: Liberty 38 - New Mexico State 14
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