Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Prediction & Betting Tips for Week 11 on 11/14/2026

In Week 11 of the 2026 college football season, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders will travel to Lynchburg, VA, to take on the Liberty Flames. The game will be held at Williams Stadium, with a kickoff time set for 3:30 PM on November 14th. Fans can catch the action live on CBSS.

The Blue Raiders enter this game with a 5-4 overall record, including a 1-3 mark on the road. Despite a rocky start, Middle Tennessee recently secured an impressive 51-42 victory over Western Kentucky. Their offensive performance has shown potential, but the road challenges have been significant.

Liberty, on the other hand, boasts a strong 8-1 season record and remains undefeated at home. Their recent triumph over New Mexico State, 30-14, highlighted the Flames' consistent dominance. With a perfect 5-0 conference record, Liberty looks to continue their winning streak in front of their home crowd.

Liberty vs Middle Tennessee At a Glance (Week 11)

• Game Date and Time: Saturday, November 14, 2026, at 3:30 PM
• Venue: Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, VA
• Television Coverage: The game will be aired on CBSS
• Liberty Flames Record: 8-1 overall, 4-0 at home
• Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Record: 5-4 overall, 1-3 on the road
• Betting Odds: Liberty is favored with a moneyline of -1520, and the spread is -20.5

Liberty Flames Ignite at Home: Previewing the Matchup

Offensive Momentum

The Liberty Flames have shown consistent offensive prowess this season, ranking 29th nationally with 300 points scored. Their ground game has been particularly effective, amassing 1,884 rushing yards, which places them 20th in the nation. Despite a less dominant aerial attack, they have managed to complement their rushing efforts effectively.

Quarterback Deshawn Purdie has been the leader on offense, with 1,705 passing yards and 11 touchdowns, showing efficiency with only one interception. Kam Davis leads the rushing attack with 666 yards and eight touchdowns, proving to be a key component of their offensive strategy.

Defensive Fortitude

Defensively, the Flames have allowed 122 points this season, ranking them 53rd nationally. Their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks is noteworthy, with 20 sacks placing them 17th in the nation. Additionally, they have been successful in forcing turnovers, with 11 interceptions ranking 12th nationally.

The defense's ability to recover fumbles also stands out, as they have secured four fumble recoveries, making them a top-10 unit in this category. This strong defensive performance has contributed significantly to their undefeated record so far.

Recent Performances

In their most recent outing, the Flames secured a 30-14 victory over New Mexico State, demonstrating balanced offensive production with 252 passing yards and 148 rushing yards. Their defense held strong, limiting the Aggies to just 44 rushing yards and forcing two interceptions.

Earlier in the season, Liberty dominated Florida International 49-10, showcasing their offensive potential with 246 passing yards and 147 rushing yards. The defense was equally impressive, conceding only 34 rushing yards and forcing a turnover.

Injury Concerns

The Flames are dealing with several injury issues, notably the absence of Aaron Hester and Justin Marshall for the remainder of the season. Additionally, kicker Tyler Black is out, potentially impacting special teams. Several players, including Austin Anderson and Jiquavious Marshall, are listed as questionable, which could affect depth in key positions.

Liberty Top Betting Trends

• SU - After Win: Last 30 Games (2023–2026) → 26-4 (86.7%)
• SU - All Games: Last 8 Games (2026) → 8-0 (100.0%)
• SU - As Favorite: Last 8 Games (2026) → 8-0 (100.0%)
• SU - Home Games: Last 24 Games (2023–2026) → 20-4 (83.3%)
• ATS - All Games: Last 7 Games (2026) → 7-0 (100.0%)
• ATS - As Favorite: Last 7 Games (2026) → 7-0 (100.0%)
• ATS - After Win: Last 7 Games (2026) → 7-0 (100.0%)
• SU - Totals ≥ 50: Last 5 Games (2026) → 5-0 (100.0%)
• SU - Away Games: Last 4 Games (2026) → 4-0 (100.0%)
• ATS - Away Games: Last 4 Games (2026) → 4-0 (100.0%)
• ATS - Totals ≥ 50: Last 4 Games (2026) → 4-0 (100.0%)
• ATS - Home Games: Last 3 Games (2026) → 3-0 (100.0%)

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Set to Take on Liberty Flames

Quarterback Analysis

Roman Gagliano is the starting quarterback for the Blue Raiders, showcasing impressive stats this season. He has completed 1899 passing yards, ranking him 51st nationally. Gagliano's ability to manage the game with 16 touchdown passes and only 4 interceptions has been crucial for Middle Tennessee's offense.

Backup quarterback Peter Costelli has only appeared in one game this season with minimal impact. Gagliano's performance will be pivotal as the Blue Raiders prepare for their game against the Flames. The reliance on Gagliano indicates the team's trust in his leadership and decision-making abilities on the field.

Running Game Insight

Antonio Martin Jr. leads the Blue Raiders' rushing attack with 711 yards over nine games. His four rushing touchdowns illustrate his effectiveness in the ground game. Martin's performance will be essential in establishing the run against the Flames' defense.

Terrence Brown Jr. provides depth in the backfield with 394 rushing yards and two touchdowns. His dual-threat capability, with 31 receptions for 149 yards, adds another dimension to the Blue Raiders' offense. Brown's versatility could be a key factor in Middle Tennessee's offensive strategy.

Receiving Corps Overview

Cam'ron Lacy is the top receiver for the Blue Raiders with 54 receptions and 579 yards. His four receiving touchdowns highlight his ability to make plays in the end zone. Neo Clifton complements Lacy with 21 receptions for 267 yards and five touchdowns, leading the team in scoring through the air.

The depth at wide receiver, including Ziyon Butler and Markus Allen, ensures multiple targets for Gagliano. Butler and Allen have contributed with key receptions, adding diversity to the passing game. This group’s ability to create separation and secure catches is vital against Liberty’s secondary.

Betting Trends

• O/U - All Games: Last 5 Games (2026) → 5-0 (100.0%)
• O/U - As Underdog: Last 5 Games (2026) → 5-0 (100.0%)
• O/U - Home Games: Last 3 Games (2026) → 3-0 (100.0%)
• O/U - After Loss: Last 3 Games (2026) → 3-0 (100.0%)
• SU - Home Games: Last 6 Games (2025–2026) → 5-1 (83.3%)

Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Week 11 Prediction: Over 53.5

Liberty's offensive power has been consistent, ranking 29th in points for this season with a total of 300 points. This offensive capability has been a significant factor in their success, especially when playing at home. With their ability to score and Middle Tennessee's high-scoring games, the over looks promising.

Middle Tennessee's recent games have been high-scoring affairs, evidenced by their 51-42 win over Western Kentucky. Their offensive stats show a team that can put points on the board, while their defense has struggled, allowing 279 points against this season. This combination suggests a potential for a high-scoring game.

The total for this game is set at 53.5, which is a fair line considering both teams' offensive performances. Liberty's home record shows that they are comfortable scoring at home, and Middle Tennessee has shown they can score on the road. Both teams are likely to contribute to a game that surpasses the set total.

Taking into account Liberty's strong home performances and Middle Tennessee's recent scoring trends, this game could easily exceed the current over/under line. Expect a competitive game with both teams reaching the end zone multiple times, leading to a final score above the total.

• Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Prediction: Over 53.5
• Liberty vs Middle Tennessee Score: Liberty 38 - Middle Tennessee 24

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