Boise State vs Texas State Prediction & Betting Tips for Week 9 on 10/31/2026

The Texas State Bobcats and the Boise State Broncos meet under the bright lights of Albertsons Stadium in Boise for a Week 9 Pac-12 contest. The Bobcats, with a 4-3 record, have struggled on the road this season, still searching for their first away win. Meanwhile, the Broncos, ranked 20th in the AP Poll, remain undefeated at home with a 6-1 overall record.

Texas State heads into this matchup after a narrow 20-17 victory over Utah State, highlighting their ability to win close games. Their conference record stands at 2-1, but their lack of road success is a significant hurdle. The team's recent performances at home have been strong, but replicating that form away from UFCU Stadium remains a challenge.

Boise State has shown consistent form this season, with notable wins against teams such as Washington State and Utah State. Their impressive home record of 3-0 highlights their dominance at Albertsons Stadium, making them a formidable opponent for any visiting team. The Broncos are also perfect in conference play, holding a 3-0 record, adding to their confidence heading into this encounter.

Boise State vs Texas State At a Glance (Week 9)

• Game Date and Time: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 10:00 PM
• Location: Albertsons Stadium in Boise, ID
• TV Coverage: CW
• Boise State Broncos Record: 6-1 overall, 3-0 in conference play
• Texas State Bobcats Record: 4-3 overall, 2-1 in conference play
• Game Odds: Boise State is favored with a moneyline of -483 and a spread of -11.5

Boise State Broncos Gear Up for Home Game Against Texas State

Offensive Overview

The Boise State Broncos have demonstrated a strong offensive performance this season, ranking 9th nationally in rushing yards with a total of 1678. This ground attack is spearheaded by standout running back Dylan Riley, who has amassed 963 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns over seven games.

Quarterback Maddux Madsen has efficiently led the passing game, completing 189 attempts for 1445 yards and 14 touchdowns, with no interceptions. Despite the dip in passing yard rankings to 99th, Madsen's ability to protect the ball remains critical to Boise State's success.

Defensive Strengths

Defensively, Boise State ranks 11th in sacks with 18 and 7th in interceptions with 6. The Broncos' aggressive defense has been a key factor in limiting opponents to 144 points this season, ranking them 70th nationally in points against.

Linebackers and defensive linemen have played crucial roles in disrupting opponents' offenses, combining for a formidable front seven. Their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks and create turnovers has been a staple of their defensive strategy.

Recent Performance

The Broncos are coming off a decisive 31-10 win against Washington State, where they excelled in rushing with 261 yards while allowing only 53 rushing yards. This performance marked their fifth consecutive win, maintaining an unbeaten streak in the regular season.

Boise State's offense has consistently moved the chains, as evidenced by their 166 first downs this season, placing them 20th in the nation. This ability to sustain drives has been crucial in controlling the tempo of games.

Key Players

Wide receiver Rasean Jones leads the receiving corps with 428 yards on 28 receptions and one touchdown. Tight end Matt Wagner has also been a reliable target, contributing 261 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

On special teams, kicker Canaan Moore has been reliable, converting 10 field goals and 27 extra points this season, providing a steady scoring option for the Broncos.

Injury Concerns

Wide receiver Ben Ford and offensive lineman Carson Rasmussen are currently listed as questionable with undisclosed injuries. Their potential absence could impact the Broncos' offensive depth and protection schemes.

Offensive lineman Jacob Tracy is out for the season, which could necessitate adjustments in the offensive line rotation to maintain effective protection and run blocking.

Team Betting Trends

• As Favorite: 28-2 SU (93.3%) in last 30 games.
• Home Games: 21-1 SU (95.5%) in last 22 games.
• Totals ≥ 50: 24-3 SU (88.9%) in last 27 games.
• After Win: 25-5 SU (83.3%) in last 30 games.
• O/U Home Games: 3-0 in last 3 games.

Texas State Bobcats Aim to Continue Winning Streak Against Boise State Broncos

Quarterback Analysis

The Texas State Bobcats will rely on Brad Jackson, their starting quarterback, to steer the offense against Boise State. Jackson has completed 194 passing attempts over seven games, accumulating 1,606 yards and 14 touchdowns. His efficiency and ability to maintain possession will be crucial against a competitive Broncos team.

Backup quarterback Gavin Parkhurst has made limited appearances this season, completing 9 passes for 114 yards and 1 touchdown. While Parkhurst is unlikely to start, his presence offers depth if needed.

Running Game Strength

Leading the ground attack is Torrance Burgess Jr., who has excelled with 889 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns in seven games. His performance places him among the top runners, and he is expected to challenge the Broncos' defensive line.

Davian Jackson, another key contributor in the running game, is questionable due to injury. With 315 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns in five games, his potential absence could impact the team's rushing dynamics.

Receiving Corps Overview

Chris Dawn Jr. stands out in the receiving unit with 36 receptions, totaling 396 yards and 4 touchdowns. His ability to create plays will be vital for the Bobcats' passing game.

Beau Sparks follows as the secondary target with 25 receptions for 339 yards and 2 touchdowns. These wide receivers form a dynamic duo that can stretch the field against Boise State.

Betting Trends

• SU - Home Games: Last 4 Games (2026) → 4-0 (100.0%)
• O/U - As Favorite: Last 18 Games (2024–2026) → 13-5 (72.2%)
• O/U - All Games: Last 23 Games (2024–2026) → 16-7 (69.6%)
• O/U - Totals ≥ 50: Last 23 Games (2024–2026) → 16-7 (69.6%)
• O/U - After Loss: Last 23 Games (2022–2026) → 15-7-1 (65.2%)
• SU - As Favorite: Last 8 Games (2025–2026) → 6-2 (75.0%)
• O/U - Home Games: Last 13 Games (2024–2026) → 9-4 (69.2%)
• SU - All Games: Last 5 Games (2026) → 4-1 (80.0%)
• O/U - Away Games: Last 5 Games (2025–2026) → 4-1 (80.0%)
• O/U - After Win: Last 5 Games (2025–2026) → 4-1 (80.0%)
• SU - Totals ≥ 50: Last 5 Games (2026) → 4-1 (80.0%)
• SU - After Loss: Last 28 Games (2021–2026) → 17-11 (60.7%)
• ATS - After Loss: Last 30 Games (2021–2026) → 17-13 (56.7%)
• ATS - Home Games: Last 4 Games (2026) → 3-1 (75.0%)
• O/U - As Underdog: Last 13 Games (2022–2026) → 8-5 (61.5%)
• SU - After Win: Last 17 Games (2024–2026) → 10-7 (58.8%)
• ATS - As Underdog: Last 30 Games (2020–2026) → 16-14 (53.3%)
• ATS - As Favorite: Last 7 Games (2025–2026) → 4-3 (57.1%)
• ATS - All Games: Last 5 Games (2026) → 3-2 (60.0%)
• ATS - Totals ≥ 50: Last 5 Games (2026) → 3-2 (60.0%)

Boise State vs Texas State Week 9 Prediction: Boise State -11.5

Boise State enters Week 9 as a strong contender, ranked #20 in the AP Poll, and with a stellar 6-1 record this season. Their home record is impressive, showing dominance at Albertsons Stadium with a 3-0 record. With the Broncos being 11.5-point favorites and having a consistent track record of covering the spread at home, they present a compelling case to back them against Texas State.

Texas State, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, going 0-2 this season away from home. Despite their recent win against Utah State, their inability to secure victories on the road is concerning. This, combined with Boise State's strong home field advantage, suggests that Texas State might struggle to keep the game within the spread.

Boise State's offensive and defensive metrics further reinforce their favoritism. Ranked 33rd in points for and 70th in points against, they exhibit a balanced and effective game plan. Their ability to control the game on both sides of the ball should help them cover the 11.5-point spread comfortably.

Taking these factors into account, Boise State's home dominance and Texas State's road woes make the Broncos a solid pick to cover the spread. Expect Boise State to secure a decisive victory at home.

• Boise State vs Texas State Prediction: Boise State -11.5
• Boise State vs Texas State Score: Boise State 35 - Texas State 17

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