Boise State vs South Dakota Prediction & Betting Tips for Week 3 on 9/19/2026

In Week 3 of the 2026 regular season, the South Dakota Coyotes will travel to face the Boise State Broncos at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. The Coyotes are looking to bounce back from a tough 2025 season opener against Iowa State, where they were outmatched in a 55-7 defeat. With no conference affiliations, South Dakota is aiming to make a statement under the spotlight of a nationally televised night game on CBSS.

The Broncos, representing the Pac-12, enter this contest with a 1-1 record for the season. Their recent victory at home against Memphis, with a score of 38-20, highlighted their ability to dominate on the ground, amassing 359 rushing yards. The Broncos will look to maintain their strong home-field performance as they host the Coyotes.

Bookmakers have set the odds heavily in favor of Boise State, with the Broncos holding a -4000 moneyline advantage. South Dakota, given a +24.5 point spread, will need a strong defensive effort to overcome the potent Boise State offense, which has shown its capacity to score efficiently both through the air and on the ground. Fans can expect a competitive game as both teams seek to establish momentum early in the season.

Boise State vs South Dakota At a Glance

• Game Date and Time: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:00 PM (Night Game)
• Venue: Albertsons Stadium in Boise, ID
• Weather: Outdoor Field
• TV Broadcast: CBSS
• Current Records: South Dakota Coyotes 0-1, Boise State Broncos 1-1
• Betting Odds: Boise State favored with -4000 moneyline, spread set at -24.5

Boise State Broncos Set for Strong Performance at Albertsons Stadium

Offensive Overview

The Boise State Broncos have shown a balanced offensive approach so far this season. Ranking 39th with 65 points scored, the team has demonstrated an ability to find the end zone. Despite being ranked 85th in passing yards, their rushing game shines, placing 31st with 453 yards.

Maddux Madsen, the starting quarterback, returned with impressive numbers from last season, including 18 passing touchdowns. His efficiency will be crucial for the Broncos as they aim to improve their aerial attack. The running backs, led by Dylan Riley, who had 1,091 rushing yards last season, will be pivotal in maintaining their strong ground game.

Defensive Prowess

Boise State's defense has been stout, allowing only 54 points, which ranks them 42nd. Their ability to pressure the quarterback is evident, with three sacks ranking them 10th, while their secondary has already nabbed one interception, placing them 2nd.

The defensive unit's ability to recover fumbles is also notable, with one recovery placing them 6th. This defensive strength will be critical as they look to maintain a solid home-field advantage against upcoming opponents.

Recent Performance

In their recent home game, the Broncos secured a 38-20 victory over the Memphis Tigers. Their rushing attack was particularly dominant, racking up 359 yards compared to Memphis' 135.

Their win at Albertsons Stadium was marked by an overwhelming performance in first downs, achieving 28 compared to Memphis' 17. This momentum will be essential as they face future challenges on their schedule.

Upcoming Matchup

The Broncos are set to host the South Dakota Coyotes at Albertsons Stadium. As 24.5-point favorites, they are expected to capitalize on their home advantage.

Maintaining their strong home performance will be key, especially with a total set at 54.5 points, indicating potential for another high-scoring affair.

Boise State Top Betting Trends

• SU - As Favorite: 27-2 (93.1%) over the last 29 games
• SU - Home Games: 19-1 (95.0%) over the last 20 games
• ATS - Home Games: 8-1 (88.9%) over the last 9 games
• SU - After Win: 20-5 (80.0%) over the last 25 games
• SU - After Loss: 9-1 (90.0%) over the last 10 games

South Dakota Coyotes Look to Rebound on the Road

Offensive Struggles

The South Dakota Coyotes are coming off a challenging game against Iowa State, where their offensive production was limited. In the previous season, they averaged just 7 points per game, ranking 136th nationally. Their passing attack also struggled, accumulating only 126 yards per game, placing them 188th in the rankings.

Rushing yards were similarly hard to come by for the Coyotes, with an average of 82 yards per game, ranked 178th. First downs were scarce, as the team managed only 11 per game, placing them 112nd. Improving these numbers will be crucial as they move forward.

Defensive Performance

On the defensive side, South Dakota allowed 55 points in their opener against Iowa State. However, their defense has shown potential in certain areas, such as interceptions, where they ranked first in the previous season. The team will need to capitalize on turnovers to help the offense gain better field position.

Sacks and fumble recoveries are areas for improvement, as they recorded no sacks and no fumbles recovered in their last outing. Enhancing these aspects of their game could provide the Coyotes with the momentum they need.

Key Players to Watch

Aidan Bouman, the starting quarterback, will be a key player to watch as he leads the Coyotes' offensive efforts. Bouman completed 29 passing attempts for 126 yards in their last game. His ability to connect with receivers will be vital for the team's success.

Running back Charles Pierre Jr. will look to improve upon his 49 rushing yards from the previous game. His contributions on the ground and as a receiver, with 37 receiving yards, add depth to the Coyotes' offensive options.

Team Betting Trends

• ATS - All Games: Last 3 Games (2023–2025) → 2-1 (66.7%)
• O/U - All Games: Last 3 Games (2023–2025) → 2-1 (66.7%)
• ATS - As Underdog: Last 3 Games (2023–2025) → 2-1 (66.7%)
• O/U - As Underdog: Last 3 Games (2023–2025) → 2-1 (66.7%)
• ATS - Away Games: Last 3 Games (2023–2025) → 2-1 (66.7%)
• O/U - Away Games: Last 3 Games (2023–2025) → 2-1 (66.7%)
• ATS - After Loss: Last 3 Games (2023–2025) → 2-1 (66.7%)
• O/U - After Loss: Last 3 Games (2023–2025) → 2-1 (66.7%)
• SU - All Games: Last 3 Games (2023–2025) → 0-3 (0.0%)
• SU - As Underdog: Last 3 Games (2023–2025) → 0-3 (0.0%)
• SU - Away Games: Last 3 Games (2023–2025) → 0-3 (0.0%)
• SU - After Loss: Last 3 Games (2023–2025) → 0-3 (0.0%)

Boise State vs South Dakota Prediction: Boise State -24.5

Boise State enters this game with a strong track record as a favorite, especially at home. They are 19-1 in their last 20 home games and have consistently covered the spread in favorable conditions, including a 8-1 ATS record in their last nine home games. This trend suggests they are likely to cover the large spread of -24.5 against South Dakota.

South Dakota, on the other hand, is coming off a massive defeat, losing 55-7 against Iowa State. With a struggling offense ranking near the bottom in points for and passing yards, their chances of keeping this game close against Boise State's high-powered offense appear slim. South Dakota's inability to capitalize on the few opportunities they create offensively could lead to another lopsided loss.

The Broncos have been efficient in games with totals set at 50 or higher, with a solid record of winning and covering such games. Given South Dakota's defensive woes and Boise State's offensive firepower, expect the Broncos to score early and often, building a sizeable lead by halftime. Boise State's ability to maintain their form after a win also supports this prediction.

Boise State's recent 38-20 victory over Memphis highlights their capability to dominate less competitive teams, and facing South Dakota at home gives them a further edge. Taking into account Boise State's top betting trends and South Dakota's struggles, the prediction leans strongly in favor of Boise State covering the -24.5 spread.

• Boise State vs South Dakota Prediction: Boise State -24.5
• Boise State vs South Dakota Score: Boise State 45 - South Dakota 10

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