Baylor vs Iowa State Prediction & Betting Tips for Week 10 on 11/7/2026

The Iowa State Cyclones, with a 4-4 record, head to Waco for a challenging road game against the Baylor Bears in Week 10 of the 2026 regular season. The Cyclones have struggled away from home, holding a 0-3 road record. Their recent performance includes a narrow 51-49 win over Oklahoma State, showcasing their offensive potential.

Baylor, on the other hand, stands at 5-3, demonstrating strong home form with a 3-1 record. Their recent 41-9 victory against UCF highlighted their defensive capabilities. This game at McLane Stadium will be crucial for both teams as they navigate the competitive Big 12 conference.

Both teams have displayed fluctuating performances throughout the season, making this encounter particularly intriguing. Iowa State will look to improve on their road challenges, while Baylor aims to leverage their home advantage. The game will be televised on FS1, providing a platform for both teams to make a statement.

Baylor vs Iowa State At a Glance (Week 10)

• Game Venue: McLane Stadium in Waco, TX
• Date & Time: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM
• Broadcast: FS1
• Iowa State Record: 4-4 overall, 0-3 on the road
• Baylor Record: 5-3 overall, 3-1 at home
• Game Odds: Baylor favored at -345 on the moneyline

Baylor Bears Look to Extend Dominance at McLane Stadium

Offensive Overview

The Baylor Bears have had a strong offensive showing this season, particularly through the air. They rank 18th nationally in passing yards with 2,271, reflecting their emphasis on an aerial attack. Although their rushing game ranks 73rd with 1,232 yards, the Bears have managed to maintain a balanced offensive strategy.

DJ Lagway, the starting quarterback, has been instrumental in Baylor's passing success. With 1,671 passing yards and 13 touchdowns, Lagway has led the offense effectively. His ability to connect with key receivers will be crucial in their upcoming games.

Defensive Prowess

Baylor's defense has shown significant improvement, allowing just 122 points this season, ranking them 56th in the country. Their pass rush has been particularly effective, with 34 sacks, placing them 2nd nationally. The Bears' ability to pressure the quarterback will be a key factor against opponents.

Additionally, Baylor's defense has been opportunistic, with 9 interceptions and 6 fumbles recovered. These turnovers have helped shift momentum in their favor, proving vital in close games.

Recent Performance

In their last outing, Baylor secured a decisive 41-9 victory over UCF, showcasing their offensive and defensive capabilities. This win was fueled by an efficient passing game and a stout defensive effort that limited UCF to just 66 rushing yards.

Despite a narrow 25-24 loss to Kansas the previous week, Baylor demonstrated resilience, nearly clinching the win on the road. This performance highlighted their ability to compete closely in challenging environments.

Injury Concerns

The Bears have a few players listed as questionable, including Devonte Tezino (DL) and Ashton Jones (WR), both dealing with undisclosed injuries. Jacob Redding (S) is out for the season with a torn ACL, impacting the depth in the secondary.

Injuries could affect depth in certain areas, but Baylor has shown the ability to adapt. The coaching staff will need to manage these uncertainties as they prepare for upcoming games.

Baylor Bears Betting Trends

• ATS - Away Games: Last 4 Games (2026) → 4-0 (100.0%)
• ATS - After Loss: Last 4 Games (2026) → 4-0 (100.0%)
• SU - As Favorite: Last 15 Games (2024–2026) → 12-3 (80.0%)
• O/U - Away Games: Last 24 Games (2022–2026) → 17-7 (70.8%)
• SU - Home Games: Last 17 Games (2024–2026) → 11-6 (64.7%)

Iowa State Cyclones Set to Test Their Mettle in Upcoming Game

Quarterback Spotlight

The Iowa State Cyclones rely heavily on their starting quarterback, Jaylen Raynor, who has shown solid performance this season. Raynor has amassed 1,416 passing yards, ranking 82nd nationally, and thrown for 10 touchdowns. His ability to maintain composure and accuracy will be crucial in their upcoming game.

Connor Moberly, the backup quarterback, has seen limited action with 19 passing attempts. However, he has been dealing with an injury, and his availability for the upcoming game remains uncertain.

Running Game Strength

Aiden Flora, leading the Cyclones' rushing attack, has been a powerhouse with 937 rushing yards, ranking 7th nationally. Flora's 8 rushing touchdowns reflect his ability to find the end zone and his importance to the team's ground game.

Other contributors in the backfield include Cameron Pettaway and Arnold Barnes III, though their impact has been less pronounced compared to Flora. Pettaway has gained 52 yards while Barnes III has contributed 102 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Receiving Corps Overview

Jamal Polite Jr. stands out in the receiving unit with 286 yards and 2 touchdowns, making him a key target for Raynor. Omari Hayes adds depth with 246 receiving yards and a touchdown, providing additional options in the passing game.

Despite injuries affecting the wide receiver corps, including Dominic Overby who is out for the season, the Cyclones have reliable options with Cody Jackson and Dominic Overby contributing when fit. Their ability to create separation and gain yards after the catch will be vital.

Defensive Insights

The Cyclones' defense has faced challenges, ranking 109th in points against with 218 points allowed. However, they excel in turnover creation, boasting a top-5 rank with 7 fumbles recovered and 3 interceptions.

The defensive line, led by standout performances, has recorded 10 sacks, ranked 21st nationally. This unit's ability to pressure the quarterback and disrupt the opponent's rhythm will be critical in their game strategy.

Special Teams Impact

Kicker Kyle Konrardy has been a consistent performer, successfully making 12 field goals and 28 extra points this season. His reliability in the kicking game adds a valuable dimension to Iowa State's scoring capabilities.

With an ability to convert under pressure, Konrardy provides the Cyclones with a scoring option in tight game situations. His performance can often tilt the balance in closely contested encounters.

Betting Trends

• SU - As Favorite: Last 5 Games (2025–2026) → 5-0 (100.0%)
• SU - Home Games: Last 19 Games (2024–2026) → 15-4 (78.9%)
• O/U - Home Games: Last 4 Games (2026) → 4-0 (100.0%)
• SU - Totals ≥ 50: Last 6 Games (2025–2026) → 5-1 (83.3%)
• SU - After Win: Last 22 Games (2024–2026) → 16-6 (72.7%)

Baylor vs Iowa State Week 10 Prediction: Over 50.5

Baylor comes into this game with a strong home record and a recent high-scoring victory over UCF, putting up 41 points. Their offensive strength is evident with a ranking of 18th in passing yards, which should help them put points on the board against Iowa State's defense, ranked 109th in points allowed. Baylor's recent trend of hitting the over in games after a win supports an expectation for a high-scoring affair.

Iowa State is coming off a thrilling win over Oklahoma State, scoring 51 points, which suggests that their offense is firing on all cylinders. Despite their winless road record, the Cyclones have proven capable of putting up big numbers, making the over a tempting play. With their offensive showing and Baylor’s defensive vulnerabilities, expect both teams to contribute significantly to the total score.

Historically, games between Baylor and Iowa State have leaned towards the over, as seen in past matchups where high-scoring outcomes were common. Both teams' offensive capabilities, combined with the defensive struggles seen at times, indicate a game that could exceed the consensus total of 50.5 points. With both teams keen to solidify their standings in the Big 12, this game could be a shootout.

Considering the data and trends, expect Baylor to take advantage of their home-field edge, while Iowa State will be eager to shake off their road woes with another offensive showcase. This points to a final score that surpasses the current total, making the over the recommended play.

• Baylor vs Iowa State Prediction: Over 50.5
• Baylor vs Iowa State Score: Baylor 34 - Iowa State 27

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