Arizona State vs Baylor Prediction & Betting Tips for Week 5 on 10/3/2026

The Baylor Bears, with a strong start to the season, come into Week 5 holding a 3-1 record. Their journey has been marked by a perfect home record, winning all three games at McLane Stadium, while facing a setback in their only road game. This upcoming game against Arizona State offers them a chance to improve their road performance.

Arizona State Sun Devils, playing at Mountain America Stadium, hold a 2-1 record this season. They have shown dominance at home with two wins and aim to maintain this form against Baylor. As both teams are part of the Big 12 Conference, this game holds significance in their conference standings.

The odds favor Arizona State slightly, with the Sun Devils holding a moneyline of -183 compared to Baylor's +151. Both teams will look to leverage their strengths in this night game, broadcasted on ESPN, to secure a crucial win in their 2026 campaigns.

Arizona State vs Baylor At a Glance (Week 5)

• Game Week: Week 5 of the 2026 Regular Season
• Location: Mountain America Stadium in Tempe, AZ
• Kickoff Time: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 10:30 PM
• Broadcast: ESPN
• Baylor Bears Record: 3-1 (0-1 on the road)
• Arizona State Sun Devils Odds: -183 Moneyline, -4.5 Spread

Arizona State Sun Devils Look to Shine at Home Against Baylor

Offensive Overview

The Arizona State Sun Devils have tallied 114 points in the 2026 regular season, placing them 53rd nationally. Their passing game ranks 98th with 781 yards, suggesting room for improvement in aerial attacks. Rushing efforts have accumulated 504 yards, securing the 102nd spot, indicating a balanced but not yet explosive offense.

Defensive Strength

Defensively, Arizona State has been stout, allowing only 72 points, ranking them 44th in the nation. Their ability to pressure quarterbacks is reflected in their 5 sacks, ranked 13th. Turnover creation has been a highlight, with 2 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries, ranking 3rd and 6th respectively.

Key Players to Watch

Quarterback Cutter Boley has been pivotal, leading the offense with 736 passing yards and 9 touchdowns. Reed Harris, the leading receiver, has amassed 374 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. On the ground, Kyson Brown has contributed with 227 rushing yards.

Recent Game Performances

Arizona State began their season with a commanding 70-7 victory over Morgan State, showcasing offensive firepower with 432 passing yards. However, their game against Texas A&M highlighted some vulnerabilities, as they fell 48-20. The Sun Devils bounced back with a gritty 24-17 win against Kansas.

Upcoming Challenges

The Sun Devils are set to welcome the Baylor Bears at Mountain America Stadium. This home game provides an opportunity to solidify their standing and maintain momentum. The team will need to leverage their home-field advantage to secure a victory.

Injury Report

Injuries may impact the roster, with Zyrus Fiaseu, MyKeil Gardner, and Khamari Anderson confirmed out for the season. Several players are listed as questionable, including Maurice Williams and Brent Helton, which could affect depth and performance.

Team Betting Trends

• SU - As Favorite: 16-2 in the last 18 games (2022–2026)
• SU - After Loss: 8-0 in the last 8 games (2024–2026)
• ATS - After Loss: 8-0 in the last 8 games (2024–2026)
• SU - Home Games: 14-2 in the last 16 games (2024–2026)
• SU - Totals ≥ 50: 12-2 in the last 14 games (2024–2026)
• ATS - As Favorite: 3-0 in the last 3 games (2025–2026)

Arizona State's consistent performance, especially as favorites and following losses, highlights their resilience and capability to rebound effectively. Their recent home game success suggests a strong potential for victory against Baylor.

Baylor Bears Set to Take on the Arizona State Sun Devils

Quarterback Situation

DJ Lagway leads the Bears' offensive charge as the primary quarterback. Over the course of the season, Lagway has accumulated 554 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. His counterpart, Nate Bennett, has also contributed significantly with 567 passing yards and 6 touchdowns.

Offensive Playmakers

Running back Dawson Pendergrass stands out with his impressive 288 rushing yards and a touchdown across four games. Caden Knighten adds depth to the rushing attack with 159 yards and a touchdown.

Wide receiver Gavin Freeman is the go-to option for Baylor, boasting 364 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Jayden McGowan is another key target, with 193 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns.

Defensive Outlook

Baylor's defense has been a force this season, ranked 27th in points against. They've shown prowess in pressuring opposing quarterbacks, tallying 15 sacks, which ranks them 3rd nationally.

With 4 interceptions and 3 fumbles recovered, the Bears' defense consistently capitalizes on turnover opportunities, making them a top-5 unit in these categories.

Special Teams

Kicker Rhett Armstrong is a reliable asset for the Bears, with 8 field goals and 11 extra points made this season. His consistent performance is vital for Baylor in tight games.

Betting Trends

• SU - As Favorite: 11-2 over the last 13 games.
• SU - All Games: Undefeated at 3-0 this season.
• O/U - Away Games: 15-6 over the last 21 games.
• ATS - All Games: 3-1 this season.
• SU - After Win: 9-4 over the last 13 games.

Injury Concerns

Defensive lineman Devonte Tezino and offensive lineman Cayden Tone are both questionable, which could impact Baylor's depth on the field. Safety Jacob Redding is out for the season with a knee injury, affecting the Bears' secondary.

Arizona State vs Baylor Week 5 Prediction: Arizona State -4.5

The Baylor Bears have struggled on the road with a 0-1 record this season, contrasting with their perfect home record. Despite their recent win over Colorado, their road performance raises concerns against Arizona State, who have been formidable at home with a 2-0 record. Baylor's strong offensive stats, particularly in passing yards ranked 26th, may not be enough to overcome their road challenges.

Arizona State, playing at Mountain America Stadium, demonstrates a strong record when favored, going 16-2 in their last 18 games. Their home dominance is further underscored by their 14-2 record over the past 16 home games. The Sun Devils' ability to cover the spread as favorites in their last 3 games (3-0) makes them an appealing pick against Baylor.

Arizona State's defense, ranked 44th in points against, will be critical in neutralizing Baylor's offensive threats. The Sun Devils' defensive stats, combined with their offensive capabilities, position them well to maintain their strong home performance. This, coupled with Baylor's road struggles, supports a prediction for Arizona State to cover the -4.5 spread.

Given the odds and statistics, Arizona State is expected to continue their home success. A projected final score of Arizona State 28 - Baylor 21 aligns with the spread prediction, suggesting a narrow yet convincing win for the Sun Devils.

• Arizona State vs Baylor Prediction: Arizona State -4.5
• Arizona State vs Baylor Score: Arizona State 28 - Baylor 21

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