In Week 11 of the 2026 college football season, the San Jose State Spartans travel to take on the Air Force Falcons at Falcon Stadium. With a current record of 5-5, the Spartans look to improve their Mountain West conference standing. The game is set for a 7:00 PM kickoff and will be broadcast on CBSS. The Air Force Falcons, holding a 7-2 record, have been strong at home with a 4-1 record at Falcon Stadium. They aim to strengthen their position within the conference, having secured four wins in their last five games. As the home team, they are favored with a moneyline of -477. San Jose State enters the game with a 3-2 road record, hoping to upset the odds with a moneyline of +369. Their recent performance includes a win against Northern Illinois, showcasing their ability to compete in challenging situations. Both teams are aiming to solidify their season successes in this Mountain West showdown.

Air Force vs San Jose State At a Glance (Week 11)

  • Game Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM
  • Venue: Falcon Stadium in USAF Academy, CO — Outdoor Field
  • Broadcast: TV on CBSS
  • San Jose State Spartans Record: 5-5 overall, 3-3 in Mountain West Conference
  • Air Force Falcons Record: 7-2 overall, 3-2 in Mountain West Conference
  • Game Odds: Air Force Moneyline -477, San Jose State Moneyline +369

Air Force Falcons Soar Into Upcoming Game with Dominant Rushing Attack

Offensive Prowess

The Air Force Falcons' offense is headlined by their top-ranked rushing attack, accumulating 2,995 yards this season. This impressive ground game has been pivotal in their ability to control the clock and dictate the pace of play.

Despite their low ranking in passing yards, their efficient ground game has resulted in 206 first downs, placing them 21st nationally. This ability to consistently move the chains has been key to their offensive success.

Quarterback Situation

With Liam Szarka sidelined due to a leg injury, the Falcons will rely on Evan Medders to lead their offense. Medders has shown a steady hand with 176 passing yards and three touchdowns this season, demonstrating his capability to manage the game effectively.

The focus will likely remain on the ground game, but Medders' ability to make timely throws will be critical in keeping defenses honest.

Defensive Strength

Defensively, the Falcons have allowed 193 points, ranking 81st nationally, but their strength lies in creating turnovers. With 13 sacks and six interceptions, the defense has been adept at disrupting opposing offenses.

Air Force's ability to recover fumbles, ranking 10th in this category, adds an extra layer of defensive reliability. This opportunistic approach could play a significant role in their upcoming games.

Key Playmakers

Running back Owen Allen has been a workhorse, contributing 450 rushing yards and three touchdowns. His performance on the ground is complemented by fellow back Rocco Conti, who adds 408 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Wide receiver Matt Long leads the receiving corps with 123 yards and two touchdowns, providing a deep threat option in the passing game. Tight end Simon Kibbee also contributes with 166 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Team Betting Trends

  • SU - As Favorite: Last 30 Games (2022–2026) → 22-8 (73.3%)
  • SU - After Win: Last 27 Games (2022–2026) → 20-7 (74.1%)
  • O/U - As Underdog: Last 3 Games (2026) → 3-0 (100.0%)
  • SU - Home Games: Last 3 Games (2026) → 3-0 (100.0%)
  • ATS - Home Games: Last 3 Games (2026) → 3-0 (100.0%)
  • SU - After Loss: Last 3 Games (2025–2026) → 3-0 (100.0%)
  • O/U - After Loss: Last 3 Games (2025–2026) → 3-0 (100.0%)
  • SU - Totals ≥ 50: Last 3 Games (2026) → 3-0 (100.0%)
  • SU - All Games: Last 7 Games (2026) → 6-1 (85.7%)
  • ATS - All Games: Last 6 Games (2026) → 5-1 (83.3%)

San Jose State Spartans Gear Up for Showdown

Quarterback Overview

The San Jose State Spartans rely heavily on the arm of Luke Weaver, their starting quarterback. This season, Weaver has completed 242 passing attempts, accumulating 1,810 yards, ranking him first on the team in both categories. His ability to deliver in the clutch will be crucial in their upcoming game.

Backing up Weaver is Daniel Rolovich, who has shown promise in his limited appearances. Rolovich has thrown for 424 yards and two touchdowns in just three games. His presence provides the Spartans with a solid backup option if needed.

Running Game Dynamics

Jabari Bates leads the Spartans' rushing attack with 682 yards over nine games, showcasing his importance to their ground game. Bates is supported by Viliami Teu, who has added 335 yards and five touchdowns, offering a consistent threat in the red zone. Together, they form a dynamic duo that can challenge opposing defenses.

Isaiah Carlson, though less frequently used, has chipped in with 62 rushing yards in six games. His contributions, while limited, provide added depth to the backfield.

Wide Receiver Contributions

Carson Clark emerges as the top target in the Spartans' receiving corps, amassing 689 yards and five touchdowns. His ability to make big plays downfield is crucial for stretching defenses and opening up the field for other playmakers.

Jerry McClure and Cooper Hoch have also been key contributors, with 356 and 338 receiving yards, respectively. Each adds depth to the receiving unit and has the potential to impact the game significantly.

Team Betting Trends

  • SU - As Favorite: 23-7 (76.7%) in the last 30 games (2022–2026)
  • SU - Totals ≥ 50: 4-0 (100.0%) in the last 4 games (2026)
  • SU - Home Games: 20-10 (66.7%) in the last 30 games (2022–2026)
  • ATS - After Loss: 5-1 (83.3%) in the last 6 games (2026)
  • ATS - Away Games: 15-7 (68.2%) in the last 22 games (2023–2026)
  • SU - After Loss: 4-1 (80.0%) in the last 5 games (2026)
  • SU - Away Games: 3-1 (75.0%) in the last 4 games (2026)
  • ATS - As Underdog: 16-13 (55.2%) in the last 29 games (2021–2026)
  • O/U - After Loss: 15-12 (55.6%) in the last 27 games (2022–2026)
  • ATS - After Win: 16-14 (53.3%) in the last 30 games (2021–2026)

Air Force vs San Jose State Week 11 Prediction: Over 47.5

The Air Force Falcons bring a powerful rushing attack, ranking 1st in the nation with 2,995 rushing yards this season, which contributes to their ability to generate points. Their scoring average of 258 points ranks them 49th, indicating their capacity to put up numbers on the board. San Jose State, on the other hand, has allowed 220 points, which places their defense at 98th, suggesting potential for Air Force to capitalize offensively.

San Jose State's offense, ranked 36th in passing yards with 2,282, should find opportunities against an Air Force defense that has allowed 193 points this season, ranked 81st. This creates the potential for a competitive back-and-forth game, likely increasing the total score. The recent head-to-head games have also shown a mix of results, but the current offensive trends hint at a more open game.

Considering both teams’ abilities to score and the defensive vulnerabilities, betting on the over 47.5 seems justified. Both teams have shown the ability to surpass defensive hurdles in recent games, as evidenced by Air Force's recent high-scoring outcomes and San Jose State's ability to score 30 points in their last game.

With these factors in mind, a final score projection could see Air Force winning 31-21, which would exceed the total points line set at 47.5. This projection underscores the expectation of a more offensively inclined game under the night lights of Falcon Stadium.

  • Air Force vs San Jose State Prediction: Over 47.5
  • Air Force vs San Jose State Score: Air Force 31 - San Jose State 21

Disclaimer: Knup Predictions are for entertainment and informational purposes only. Must be 21+ where applicable. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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