The Louisville Cardinals and Michigan State Spartans will meet in the NCAA Men’s Division I Basketball Tournament. This second-round game in the East Region will take place at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY. The game is scheduled for Saturday, March 21, 2026, at 12:00 AM ET.
Louisville enters the tournament as the 6th seed with an overall record of 23-10. They finished their conference play with a 12-8 record in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Last year, Louisville lost in the first round to Creighton with a score of 89-75.
Michigan State holds the 3rd seed and has an overall record of 25-7. They went 15-6 in the Big Ten Conference. In the 2025 postseason, Michigan State reached the Elite Eight before losing to Auburn 70-64.
Michigan State Preview
Michigan State Spartans are ranked #11 in the AP poll. They play in the Big Ten Conference. In the 2026 regular season, they had a record of 25-7 overall and 15-6 in the conference.
In the 2025 postseason, Michigan State reached the Elite Eight. They won against Bryant, New Mexico, and Ole Miss before losing to Auburn. The game against Auburn ended with a score of 70-64.
During the 2026 regular season, the Spartans scored an average of 78.9 points per game. They had a field goal percentage of 47.1 and a three-point percentage of 35.9. They averaged 39.8 rebounds and 18.5 assists per game.
Jeremy Fears Jr. was a key player with 15.7 points per game. Jaxon Kohler contributed with 12.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. Carson Cooper also played an important role with 10.8 points and 7.0 rebounds per game.
Louisville Preview
The Louisville Cardinals are ranked 23rd in the AP poll. They play in the Atlantic Coast Conference. In the 2025 postseason, they lost to Creighton in the first round with a score of 89-75.
During the 2026 regular season, the Cardinals had a record of 23-10. Their conference record was 12-8. They scored an average of 84.8 points per game, ranking 24th in the nation.
On offense, the Cardinals made 11.5 three-pointers per game, ranking 15th. They had a field goal percentage of 47.0, which placed them 76th. Their free throw percentage was 76.9, ranking 57th.
In the postseason, the Cardinals improved their field goal percentage to 53.8, ranking 2nd. They also increased their three-point percentage to 52.0, also 2nd. Their postseason points per game were 83.0, ranking 9th.
Statistical Breakdown for Michigan State vs Louisville
The game between Michigan State Spartans and Louisville Cardinals will be interesting due to their strong offensive stats. Michigan State averages 78.9 points per game, while Louisville scores 84.8 points per game. Both teams have good field goal percentages, with Michigan State at 47.1% and Louisville at 47.0%. Rebounding will be key, as Michigan State averages 39.8 rebounds per game, slightly more than Louisville’s 38.5. Assists will also play a role, with Michigan State averaging 18.5 assists per game compared to Louisville’s 17.1.
- Michigan State Points Per Game: 78.9
- Louisville Points Per Game: 84.8
- Michigan State Field Goal Percentage: 47.1%
- Louisville Field Goal Percentage: 47.0%
- Michigan State Rebounds Per Game: 39.8
- Louisville Rebounds Per Game: 38.5
- Michigan State Assists Per Game: 18.5
- Louisville Assists Per Game: 17.1
Betting Insights
As the Louisville Cardinals prepare to take on the Michigan State Spartans, bettors have plenty of trends to consider. Both teams have shown strong performances in recent games, but their against-the-spread (ATS) and over/under records offer key insights. Here are the top five betting trends to keep in mind for this game:
- Michigan State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Louisville is 6-2 ATS as an underdog.
- Michigan State is 6-1 ATS as an underdog.
- Louisville has a 12-22 record on the over/under for all games.
- Michigan State has a 2-8 record on the over/under in their last 10 games.
Free Betting Prediction for Michigan State vs Louisville
Michigan State Spartans have a strong record, both in the regular season and postseason. They have a solid offense, with key players like Jeremy Fears Jr. and Jaxon Kohler leading the way. Their rebounding and assists stats are also impressive, which could give them an edge in this game.
Louisville Cardinals have a high-scoring offense, ranking 24th in the nation. They have improved their shooting percentages in the postseason, which could help them against Michigan State. However, their defense might struggle against the Spartans’ balanced attack.
Considering the stats and betting trends, Michigan State seems likely to win. They have a better ATS record and are favored in this game. Louisville’s strong offense might keep it close, but Michigan State’s overall balance gives them the advantage.
- Our Free Prediction: Michigan State -3.5
